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Two NL West rivals will play the second game of their series here as the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the San Diego Padres. Matt Strahm will be pitching for the Padres, while Zack Greinke will get the start for Arizona. San Diego has been sinking recently and is looking to turn things back around. Oddsmakers have this game as virtually even.
The Diamondbacks are overall having a very good season, and they entered this series at 25-22 and in 2nd place in the NL West. They’ll have the always reliable Zack Greinke here, who is enjoying another fantastic season. Through ten starts this year Greinke has a 2.78 ERA, and he’s been especially good recently. In his most recent outing, Greinke threw 7 and 2/3 innings of scoreless ball, and he gave up just four hits. In his start before that, he gave up just one run in seven innings against a very good Braves team. It’s safe to say that Greinke is on fire, and Arizona is 7-2 in his last nine starts. Over his last six starts, he’s given up just five total runs, which is absurd. Arizona is 7-3 in their last ten road games, so playing away from home clearly won’t be an issue here.
It took longer for Zack Greinke to throw a single pitch than it took Maximum Security to (not) win the 2019 Kentucky Derby…
— Kendall Baker (@TheKendallBaker) May 13, 2019
Greinke also doesn’t have any drop-off on the road, The Diamondbacks just dominated a series against the Pirates, while San Diego just lost three in a row to Pittsburgh. I’m also high on this Diamondbacks lineup, and they’ve looked particularly sharp lately. Even without Paul Goldschmidt they still have a decent amount of pop, and I think they’ll be able to hit Strahm here. I’m not sure this line should be as close as it is….
The San Diego Padres were a good story to start the season. After years of irrelevance and ineptitude, they finally appeared to be on the right track. The offseason signing of Manny Machado to a record contract provided the team with some much-needed energy, and they got off to a hot start. That being said, it looks like the hot start is officially over. Entering Monday they’d lost six of their past seven games, falling below .500 for the first time all season. As they look to get things turned around, they’ll have Matt Strahm on the mound here. Strahm is in his first year in the rotation after spending the last few years as a bullpen guy.
He’s looking good enough so far, but I’m skeptical. He also faced this Diamondbacks team in his first start of the season, and he got annihilated. He gave up eight hits and three walks in just 2 and 2/3 innings, giving up five runs in the process. The Padres also have a troubling history against Greinke, and they haven’t been able to hit him in the past. They’re quite familiar with him as Greinke has been in the NL West for a while now, and the Padres are 0-4 the last four times they’ve faced Greinke. Given that, I don’t see many reasons to be too optimistic about their chances here…
- 1-6 in their last 7 overall
- 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. Greinke
- 2-9 in their last 11 vs. National League West
- 7-2 in Greinke’s last 9 starts
- 7-3 in their last 10 road games
- 11-5 in Greinke’s last 16 road starts
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Getting the Diamondbacks at an even price here is a steal. Greinke has been dominant recently, and the Padres have lost four straight times that they’ve faced off against him. The Diamondbacks have been hot recently, while the Padres’ momentum from earlier this season has worn off. Arizona will win this one easily.
Prediction: Diamondbacks +100
Full-Game Total Pick
I also like the under a lot here. Greinke has been truly unreal in his past handful of starts, giving up just five total runs in his last six outings. Outside of a rough game in his very first start, Strahm has also been excellent this season. The under is 9-2-2 in Strahm’s last 13 starts, and this one should be very low scoring.