Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Where: Citi Field, Queens New York
When: Tuesday, May 21, 2019, 7:10 pm Eastern
We have a National League East matchup to consider for Tuesday night when the Washington Nationals and New York Mets meet under partly sunny skies and temps in the upper 60’s for game two of a three-game series. This preview is written prior to the conclusion of game one. All stats and opinions are based on the completion of Sunday’s MLB contests.
Washington is fourth in the NL East and plans on righty Erick Fedde to take the hill for the Nationals on Tuesday. New York is third in the NL East and is hoping right-hander Zach Wheeler can keep the Nationals off the scoreboard on Tuesday night. I’m the Flash and will be discussing this game with you today.
Seven Blown Saves This Season
Washington claims to be surviving the post-Bryce Harper era, but their minus 30 run differential says otherwise. The Nationals have won five of their last ten games and enter Monday night hoping to end a one-game losing streak. Washington has a 9-13 record away from Nationals Park and their bullpen has blown seven of its 15 save opportunities this season. Sean Doolittle missed the first three weeks of the season and that has more to do with the blown saves than anything else.
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) May 20, 2019
The Nationals have a lengthy injury report but aren’t listing any significant injuries for their series with the Mets nor does it appear there will be any players coming off the injured list for this series.
Fedde (0-0, 3.38 ERA) will be making his first start of the season Tuesday night and has a 3.38 ERA but his 4.48 xFIP suggests maybe some regression is headed Fedde’s way. Fedde strikes out 5.91 per nine innings with 3.38 walks and less than a home run per nine innings pitched.
The Mets have a 23.5 percent strikeout rate against righties so maybe Fedde picks up a couple of more strikeouts on Tuesday night. The Mets might get more baserunners than usual and their .319 OBP will likely be able to take advantage of the Fedde walks and the New York .150 ISO might get challenged as Fedde has a 60 percent ground ball rate and only 11 percent of his fly balls leave the yard.
Mets Five Game Losing Streak
New York is third in the NL East and if they didn’t have to play road games, the Mets might be in first place in the NL East as the road has been the Achilles heel for New York this season. Fortunately for the Mets, they play Washington at home where they enjoy a 9-8 record this season. New York has been outscored by 23 runs this season and that makes sense as they’ve played 11 more home games than at home. New York has lost six of their last ten games and enters Monday night’s contest hoping to end a five-game losing streak.
— New York Mets (@Mets) May 18, 2019
The Mets took a big hit for this series when outfielder Michael Conforto was added to the seven-day IL with a concussion and won’t be available for this series with Washington. New York has many other injuries but no one new for the past three weeks or so.
Wheeler (3-3, 4.85 ERA) has had a tough season for the injury-plagued Mets and has a 4.85 ERA but his 3.50 xFIP suggests he’s not only been unlucky but might see some positive regression headed his way at some point this season and perhaps even as soon as Tuesday. Wheeler strikes out 10.35, walks 3.40 and allows less than one bomb per nine innings pitched.
Washington has a 25 percent strikeout rate and Wheeler could wind up with a higher strikeout total than usual Tuesday night. The Nationals have a .305 OBP and I’m not sure if they can take advantage of the control issues Wheeler has and a .148 ISO in a park that allows just over one bomb per game like Citi Field allows might work in Wheeler’s favor as allowing less than a bomb per nine is who Wheeler is as a pitcher.
- Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 1-5 in Fedde’s last 6 starts.
- Nationals are 1-5 in Fedde’s last 6 starts on grass.
- Nationals are 0-4 in Fedde’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Wheeler is a strikeout pitcher against a Nationals side with a 25 percent strikeout rate and that should excite Wheeler enough to hopefully dominate the Nationals at Citi Field Tuesday evening. New York is a top ten offense at home this season with a .350 OBP against a starting pitcher allowing just over 3.5 walks per nine innings and New York should be able to get out in front of this Nationals team and let their solid bullpen finish the job on Tuesday. Cash with the Flash and play the Mets on Tuesday.
Prediction: Mets -138
Full-Game Total Pick
This is my favorite play of the day. Both offenses are better than their numbers and have probably been a bit unlucky and I think these two sides should combine for more than eight runs. I see the Mets putting up a big number against the Nats on Tuesday with Fedde being the main beneficiary of the Mets lumber. I also see Wheeler allowing a couple of runs Tuesday night. I saw the following trends that might be helpful on Tuesday night;
- Over is 4-1 in Wheelers last 5 starts vs. Nationals.
- Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Nationals are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
- Over is 5-2 in Wheelers last 7 home starts vs. Nationals.
Cash with the Flash and play the over on Tuesday night.
Prediction: Over 8 Runs