Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Where: Petco Park, San Diego California
When: Wednesday, May 22, 2019, 3:40 pm Eastern
We have a National League West game to consider for Wednesday afternoon when the Arizona Diamondbacks meet the San Diego Padres for game three of their three-game series under partly cloudy skies and temps in the mid-sixties. This preview is written prior to the start of game two and all opinions are based on the stats from the conclusion on Monday night’s play.
The Diamondbacks are second in the NL West and plan on right-hander Merrill Kelly to handle the pitching chores for Arizona. San Diego is third in the NL West and will look to lefty Eric Lauer to start for the Padres on Wednesday. I’m the Flash and will be discussing this game with you today.
Arizona 14-10 Road Record This Season
Arizona is struggling and has lost seven of their last ten games. A horrible ten-game homestand where Arizona went 4-6 is the main culprit. Losing two of three to the likes of Pittsburgh and San Francisco isn’t going to help the Diamondbacks catch the Los Angeles Dodgers in the standings. Arizona is 14-10 away from Chase Field and is just one of eight National League clubs that has outscored their opponents this season.
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) May 21, 2019
The Diamondbacks have injury concerns, most notably infielder Wilmer Flores is day-to-day with a foot injury. Flores has a .333 OBP with two bombs, 15 hits and six RBI in 49 at-bats against left-handed pitching this season.
Kelly (4-4, 4.21 ERA) is having a decent season and has pitched six or more innings in four of his nine starts this season. Kelly has a 4.21 ERA but his 4.76 xFIP suggests maybe Kelly has been a bit lucky this season and possibly that luck might change as soon as Wednesday afternoon.
San Diego ranks 23rd in baseball against righties this season and Kelly might see a boost in his seven strikeouts per nine innings pitched against the free-swinging Padres and its 26.5 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Kelly allows 3.16 free passes and 1.40 bombs per nine innings pitched and that could be trouble against the Padres and its .175 ISO and .291 OBP this season.
Padres Below .500 Record at Petco Park
San Diego isn’t playing much better than Arizona and has lost seven of its last ten games and has a home record of 12 wins and 14 losses at home this season. One of the big problems for the Padres has been the bullpen and it’s National League-leading nine blown saves this season. The other problem San Diego has is scoring runs; the Padres average 3.75 runs per game and a good reason why they have been outscored by 23 runs this season.
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) May 21, 2019
The Padres have injuries with the most notable for this series being Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis is out for this series with a hamstring injury and has a .360 OBP with six bombs and 13 RBI in 100 at-bats this season.
Lauer (2-4, 5.24 ERA) hasn’t won a game since the eighth of April and has lasted six innings only twice over nine starts this season. Lauer has a 5.24 ERA but his 4.70 xFIP suggests maybe Lauer has been a bit unlucky this season and maybe that luck will change as soon as Wednesday afternoon.
Arizona ranks fourth in baseball against southpaws this season and boasts a .348 OBP and .229 ISO and Lauer might be in trouble with his 2.72 walks and 1.36 bombs per nine innings pitched. Lauer averages 7.38 strikeouts per nine innings pitched and that number might take a hit against the Diamondbacks and its 20 percent strikeout rate this season.
- Padres are 1-4 in Lauers last 5 starts vs. National League West.
- Padres are 2-6 in their last 8 overall.
- Padres are 2-6 in their last 8 games on grass.
- Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last 5 Wednesday games.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I think we should get a decent price for Arizona on Wednesday and I will be excited to see a good price because I think the Diamondbacks will defeat the Padres in Petco Wednesday afternoon. Arizona clobbers lefties and Lauer and his 5.20 xFIP at home might be in trouble against one of the best hitting sides against lefties in MLB this season. San Diego doesn’t hit right-handers very well and while Kelly isn’t very good on the road, the Arizona offense should carry the day. Cash with the Flash and play Arizona to beat San Diego on Wednesday afternoon.
Full-Game Total Pick
I see a slugfest on Wednesday afternoon with Arizona doing most of the slugging. Neither pitcher is going to scare anybody and I can see the two teams digging in and scoring a bunch of runs on the getaway day for both clubs. I saw the following trends I think could be helpful on Wednesday afternoon.
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 5-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-1 in Lauer’s last 5 starts vs. National League West.
Cash with the Flash by playing the over on Wednesday!!