Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee Wisconsin
When: Wednesday, May 22, 2019, 1:10 pm Eastern
We have a National League Central division matchup to focus our attention on when the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers meet for game two of their three-game series under partly cloudy skies and temps in the upper 60’s. This preview was written prior to the start of game one and all stats and opinions are based upon the completion of Monday night’s play.
Cincinnati is last in the NL Central and plans on sending righty Luis Castillo out to the bump. Milwaukee is second in the NL Central and plans on right-hander Zach Davies to throw for the Brewers. I’m the Flash and will be discussing this game with you today.
Reds 9-15 Road Record This Season
Cincinnati is in the last place in the NL Central and that’s mainly due to their lousy road record of nine wins and 15 losses. If it weren’t for that, the Reds would be in the hunt for a Central Division title. Cincinnati is one of only eight teams in the National League that has outscored their opponents and that is largely due to their number two ranked pitching staff because the offense hasn’t been able to get things going yet this season.
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) May 20, 2019
The Reds have a small injury report for this game with the most recent and notable injury being outfielder Yasiel Puig being listed as day-to-day with an arm injury. Puig has a .253 OBP with seven home runs and 25 RBI over 165 at-bats this season.
Castillo (5-1, 1.90) has been phenomenal this season and has won his last two starts over the Giants in San Francisco and at home against the Chicago Cubs. Castillo has a 1.90 ERA but his 2.96 xFIP suggests maybe Castillo has been lucky and probably will see some regression at some point this season.
Milwaukee ranks 13th in baseball this season against right-handed pitching and Castillo might see a boost to his 11.09 strikeouts per nine innings pitched as the Brewers strike out in 24 percent of its at-bats. Milwaukee might see a rise to its .336 OBP as Castillo walks 3.65 hitters per nine innings pitched. The Brewers have plenty of power in that lineup, but Castillo might be able to nullify that power as he is primarily a ground ball pitcher allowing less than half a bomb per nine innings pitched.
Davies 1.54 ERA Second Best in National League
It’s only May, but this is a big series for the Brewers as they are one game behind the Chicago Cubs in the standings and could leave be in first place in the NL Central at the end of this game. The problem with the Brewers is they don’t seem to play well on the road this season and has a record of 12-13 away from Miller Park, compared to 16-8 here at home. Milwaukee is one of those eight teams in the National League that has outscored its opponents but that is mainly due to the offense. Milwaukee has the 17th ranked pitching staff in baseball and if the staff can straighten itself out, the Brewers could be going places this season.
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) May 19, 2019
Milwaukee has injuries but no significant injuries have been reported over the last four weeks and no one is coming off the IL for this series with the Reds.
Davies (5-0, 1.54 ERA) has had a strong start to his 2019 campaign and his 1.54 ERA is second best in the National League but his 4.67 xFIP suggests Davies has been very lucky and will likely see some regression at some point this season and that might happen as soon as Wednesday afternoon.
The Reds rank 26th in baseball against right-handed pitching and their 24 percent strikeout rate might not be as big a problem as it usually is against Davies and his 6.15 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Davies walks 2.73 batters per nine innings pitched and that number might decrease against the Reds and their .293 OBP this season. Cincinnati does boast a .177 ISO and that could get challenged against Davies and his .068 bombs allowed per nine innings pitched and his 44 percent ground ball rate has plenty to do with his bombs allowed total.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Davies’ last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 5-1 in Davies’ last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Brewers are 4-1 in Davies’ last 5 home starts.
- Reds are 17-40 in their last 57 road games.
- Reds are 3-13 in their last 16 Wednesday games.
- Reds are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I like the Brewers on Wednesday and hopefully, we get a good price and what I mean is a price under -150. Davies has been strong at Miller Park with less than one earned run allowed over 23.2 innings pitched. Cincinnati ranks 29th in the offense on the road this season and I think Davies should be able to keep it that way. Castillo has been good but he’s a bit shakier on the road and I think Milwaukee can get to him early and that will be the difference in this game. Cash with the Flash and play the Brewers to beat Cincy on Wednesday!
Full-Game Total Pick
The total hasn’t been posted yet but I see very few runs being scored on Wednesday afternoon. Two lights out pitchers and a bad Reds road offense are all in play here on Wednesday. I saw the following trends I think could be helpful on Wednesday;
- Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Milwaukee.
- Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.
- Under is 4-1 in Castillo’s last 5 starts vs. Brewers.
Cash with the Flash and play the under on Wednesday!!