Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Where: Nationals Park, Washington D.C
When: Saturday, May 25, 2019, 4:05 pm Eastern
We have a National League East matchup to consider for Saturday afternoon when the Miami Marlins meet the Washington Nationals under sunny skies and temps in the lower eighties. This is game two of their four-game series with the following preview written prior to the start of Friday nights action. All opinions are based on the stats from the conclusion of Thursday night’s play.
Miami is last in the National League East and plans on righty Sandy Alcantara to head out to the bump on Saturday. Washington is fourth in the NL East and hopes on sending lefty Patrick Corbin to the mound Saturday afternoon. I’m the Flash and will be discussing this game with you today.
Marlins Six Game Winning Streak!
Don’t look now but the rebuilding Miami Marlins has a six-game winning streak and has series sweeps over the New York Mets and Detroit Tigers. The six-game streak is the longest current winning streak in the National League and has left Miami 1.5 games behind the Nationals in the standings. A good series this weekend could see the Marlins knock Washington out of fourth place and that’s not too shabby for a rebuilding club like Miami.
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) May 23, 2019
Miami isn’t reporting any significant injuries for their series with the Nationals nor is anyone supposed to come off the injured list during this series.
Alcantara (2-4, 4.25 ERA) has made nine starts this season and has lasted five or more innings in eight of those nine starts and the Marlins failed to score once over those nine games. Alcantara has a 4.25 ERA but 5.00 xFIP suggests maybe Alcantara has been a bit lucky this season. Alcantara strikes out 6.11, walks 4.04 and allows 1.02 bombs per nine innings pitched this season.
Alcantara is primarily a groundball pitcher with a 30 percent fly ball rate and could see a spike in his six strikeouts per nine innings pitched against a Nationals side with a 25 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Washington might be able to take advantage of the high walk rate as their .302 OBP and eight percent walk rate suggests it might, but the below average .149 ISO might make Alcantara’s job a bit easier Saturday afternoon.
Blown Saves the Story of the Season
I know I must sound like a broken record, but the Nationals bullpen is a mess and has now blown ten of its 18 save opportunities this season. Three of those blown saves came against the Mets this past week and the result was allowing New York a four-game series sweep. Washington has 10 wins and 14 loss record at Nationals Park this season, has lost seven of its last ten games and is hoping to end a five-game losing streak on Friday evening.
FINAL // Mets 6, Nats 4 pic.twitter.com/Z6AIZUNyHY
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) May 23, 2019
Corbin (4-2, 3.25 ERA) has been solid for the Nationals and has pitched into the fifth inning or more in each of his ten starts this season. Corbin has a 3.25 ERA but his 3.50 xFIP suggests maybe he’s been a bit lucky this season. Corbin strikes out 10.24, 2.97 walks and 1.13 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched this season.
Corbin has been primarily a groundball pitcher but does have a 40 percent fly ball rate and that should bode well for him against the worst offense in baseball against southpaws. The Marlins don’t walk much (5.1 percent), don’t strike out much (20 percent) and don’t hit for much power with a .100 ISO and don’t get on base much with a .272 OBP in 451 plate appearances against lefties this season.
- Nationals are 5-1 in Corbin’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Nationals are 5-2 in Corbin’s last 7 starts.
- Nationals are 5-2 in Corbin’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Marlins are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Marlins are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Hopefully, we get a good price on this game and we should because the Nationals have been playing terribly and their bullpen has been the culprit. That being said Corbin has been very good and he’s up against the worst offense against lefties this season. I like Alcantara but the Nationals need to score enough runs to make the bullpen a moot point and after listening to talk radio in Washington this morning, the Nats know they need to score more runs and I believe they will on Saturday. Cash with the Flash and play the Nationals to defeat the Marlins on Saturday afternoon.
Full-Game Total Pick
I see some runs being scored on Saturday afternoon and especially after Corbin leaves the game. I also see the Nationals getting the ball up in the air a couple of times on Saturday. I saw the following trend that might be helpful for Saturday afternoon.
- Over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Washington.
Cash with the Flash and play the over on Saturday afternoon.