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The Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers will play the second game of their series here. Both teams are National League contenders, so this should be a good one. Jhoulys Chacin will be on the mound for the Brewers here, with Jake Arrieta getting the start for Philly. Oddsmakers have this game as virtually even.
Phillies picking up steam?
The Phillies absolutely need to make the playoffs this season. They spent a fortune in free agency, and Gabe Kapler’s seat will be very hot if they don’t live up to expectations. They started off so-so, but they’ve been picking things up recently. After starting the season 12-11 they’ve now gone 17-10 over their last 27 games. They’ve moved into first place in the NL East, and will have Jake Arrieta on the mound here as they look to keep it up here. Arrieta isn’t quite the Cy Young winning ace that he used to be, but he’s still very good. In his last start, he went six innings on the road at Wrigley Field and only gave up one run. That’s an even tougher environment than this, so I think he’ll be fine here.
Phillies manager Gabe Kapler discusses the performance of Jake Arrieta against his former team.
— 670 The Score (@670TheScore) May 21, 2019
The real reason to be excited about this Phillies team is that their lineup is heating up. Their best player, Bryce Harper, had been struggling mightily, but he now has two home runs in the last week and has hit safely in seven of his last nine games with several multi-hit games mixed in. When Harper is locked in, this Philly lineup is one of the most dangerous in the entire league. They hit righties very well, and I think they’ll be teeing off against Chacin. Getting Arrieta as an underdog is automatically intriguing…
The Brewers came out of nowhere last season to suddenly become one of the best teams in the National League. In their follow-up campaign, they’ve looked pretty good so far. But while they enter at 29-22, they haven’t been that good recently. Over their past 11 games, they’ve gone just 5-6. They’ll have Jhoulys Chacin on the mound here, which doesn’t bode too well. The veteran righty enters with a 4.65 ERA, and he’s never been anything better than mediocre during his ten-year career. Not surprisingly, the Brewers are just 2-6 in his last eight starts. For what it’s worth, they’re also 0-5 in Chacin’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Brewers are also a bit banged up at the moment.
MVP-candidate Christian Yelich just came back from injury, but you never know when his back is going to flare up again. They’ll be missing starting third baseman Travis Shaw as he continues to deal with a wrist injury, subtracting a good amount of pop from the lineup. This Brewers team is a bit overrated, and there’s not really a ton to be excited about. Outside of Josh Hader the bullpen isn’t very good, and he can’t pitch every inning. Chacin being favorited over Arrieta in a game is a pretty bold line.
- 2-6 in Chacin’s last 8 starts
- 0-5 in Chacin’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record
- 5-2 in their last 7 overall
- 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30
- 4-1 in their last 5 Saturday games
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Anytime you can get Arrieta as an underdog against a far inferior pitcher, you have to take it. Chacin has looked pretty bad this season, and it’s not surprising that the Brewers are just 2-6 in his last eight starts. The Brewers have been nothing better than mediocre overall recently, and there’s no way you can lay it with them here.
Prediction: Phillies +110
Full-Game Total Pick
I also like the over a lot here. Both of these lineups are very talented, and the Phillies should be able to get to Chacin early. The over is 4-1 in Philly’s last five games, and this one should be very high scoring as well. Christian Yelich coming back is a huge boost for the Brewers’ lineup, so they should have some success here.