Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Where: Nationals Park, Washington D.C
When: Sunday, May 26, 2019, 1:35 pm Eastern
The National League East is our focus when the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals meet on Sunday afternoon under sunny skies and temps reaching ninety for game three of their four-game series. This preview is written prior to the conclusion of Saturday’s action and all opinions are based upon the completion of Friday night’s play.
Miami had a six-game winning streak on snapped on Friday night and plans on lefty Caleb Smith to take the hill on Sunday. Washington has the second-best starting pitching staff in MLB and intends on starting righty Erick Fedde on Sunday. I’m the Flash and will be discussing this game with you today.
Six Game Winning Streak Snapped by Washington
Miami came into this series with the Nationals riding a six-game winning streak and saw that come to an end Friday night by a score of 12-10. The Marlins may be last in the National League East, but they seem to fight tooth and nail and that mentality is why the Marlins have won six of their last ten games and swept the Mets and Tigers in three-game series’ this past week.
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) May 25, 2019
The Marlins aren’t reporting any significant injuries entering into Saturday’s action.
Smith (3-1, 2.38 ERA) is having a terrific season and has completed five innings or more in each of his nine starts this season. Smith has a 2.38 ERA but his 2.97 xFIP suggests maybe Smith has been a bit lucky this season. Smith strikes out just over a dozen hitters per nine innings pitched, 2.38 walks and 1.19 home runs per nine innings pitched this season.
Washington mashes southpaws to the tune of a .336 OBP and .207 ISO to go along with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate that Smith can probably exploit. Washington has an eight percent walk rate and that could also benefit Smith on Sunday afternoon.
Ten Blown Saves for Nationals This Season
You can sum up the Nationals season in just two words as Blown Saves is what is keeping the Nationals from challenging for the NL East pennant. The Nationals have the second most blown saves in the National League and until they figure out how to finish off games the word contender and pennant won’t be in the future of the 2019 Washington Nationals.
On May 16, Juan Soto was hitting .228
On May 24, Juan Soto is hitting .281
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) May 25, 2019
Fedde (0-0, 2.87 ERA) has made one start and lasted five innings against the New York Mets. Fedde has a 2.87 ERA and 4.99 xFIP suggests Fedde has probably been lucky and could see some serious regression at some point this season. Fedde strikes out 4.40, walks 2.87 and allows just over half a bomb this season.
Miami is last in MLB against right-handed pitching and Fedde could see a spike in his strikeout totals as the Marlins strike out in 26 percent of their at-bats against right-handed pitching. Miami has a .290 OBP and baseball-worst .101 ISO could play right into Fedde’s hands on Sunday.
- Nationals are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Nationals are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Marlins are 12-41 in their last 53 road games.
- Marlins are 1-5 in their last 6 Sunday games.
- Marlins are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Against just about anyone else, I would be interested in backing Caleb Smith but not the way the Nationals hit the ball against southpaws I’m not. Washington might strike out a ton against lefties, but they also rock them and have hit 19 home runs in 453 plate appearances this season. Miami doesn’t hit righties well and Fedde should be able to last five or six innings before keeping his fingers crossed that the bullpen doesn’t mess up his win. Cash with the Flash and play the Nationals on Sunday.
Full-Game Total Pick
Friday night the two clubs combined for 22 runs and we don’t know what happened on Saturday but I have a sneaky suspicion that Sunday’s game will resemble Fridays as this trend seems to point out.
- Over is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in Washington.
Cash with the Flash and play the over on Sunday.