Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee Wisconsin
When: Sunday, May 26, 2019, 2:10 pm Eastern
We have a National League matchup to consider on Sunday afternoon when the Philadelphia Phillies face the Milwaukee Brewers under partly cloudy skies and temps in the mid-sixties. This preview is written prior to the conclusion of Saturday’s contests have concluded and all opinions are based on stats from the conclusion of Friday night’s MLB action.
Philadelphia leads the National League East and right-hander Zach Eflin is scheduled to start for the Phillies on Sunday afternoon. Milwaukee is second in the National League Central and right-hander Brandon Woodruff is the likely starter for the Brewers on Sunday. I’m the Flash and will be discussing this game with you today.
Nine Saves for Hector Neris
Philadelphia is off to a good start to their 2019 season and first in the NL East with a 30-21 record and a 12-11 record away from Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies have won six of their last ten games and enter Saturday’s matchup with Milwaukee riding a two-game winning streak. Philadelphia is one of eight teams with a positive run differential and if this keeps up, we could see the Phillies playing deep into October.
This is a Héctor Neris appreciation tweet. pic.twitter.com/Oa7AxsVxv1
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) May 25, 2019
The Phillies have a few injuries with the most notable being relief pitcher Pat Neshek listed as day to day with a sore right shoulder and is likely headed to the IL. Neshak has three saves and six holds and will be missed by the Phillies.
Eflin (5-4, 2.76 ERA) is having a fine season for Philadelphia and has gone five or more innings in eight of his ten starts this season including two complete-game victories. Eflin has a 2.76 ERA but 4.72 xFIP suggests maybe Eflin has been lucky and could see some regression at some point this season. Eflin strikes out 6.82, walk 1.89 and allows 1.16 home runs per nine innings pitched this season.
Milwaukee has plenty of power as its .183 ISO suggests but they also have a 25 percent strikeout rate against righties that Eflin can absolutely take advantage of on Sunday. Milwaukee has a .331 OBP and 10.2 percent walk rate and that could become problematic for Eflin against the Brewers.
Yelich Hits 20th Home Run of Season
Christian Yelich leads the National League in home runs with 20 with a .325 batting average and 42 RBI this season but as a team, the Brewers rank seventh in the National League in runs scored (254). Milwaukee has outscored their opponents by just 11 runs this season and has a 17-10 record at Miller Park this season. Milwaukee has played .500 ball over their last ten games and hopes to end a one-game losing streak when they play the Phillies on Saturday.
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) May 25, 2019
The Brewers aren’t listing any significant injuries for their weekend series with the Phillies.
Woodruff (6-1, 3.51 ERA) has been everything the Brewers could ask for this season and has lasted five or more innings in nine of his ten starts. Woodruff has a 3.51 ERA but his 3.54 xFIP suggests maybe a bit of luck is involved in those numbers this season. Woodruff strikes out 9.99, walks 2.72 and .096 home runs per nine innings this season.
The Phillies have a middle of the road offense against right-handed pitching this season and Woodruff should record a few strikeouts against the Phillies and its 23 percent strikeout rate. Milwaukee boasts a 10 percent walk rate and .183 ISO and that could wind up being an issue for Woodruff on Sunday afternoon.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Woodruff’s last 5 starts vs. National League East.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Woodruff’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Woodruff’s last 5 starts.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Woodruff’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Brewers are 7-1 in Woodruff’s last 8 home starts.
- Phillies are 1-4 in Eflin’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Phillies are 2-10 in Eflin’s last 12 road starts.
- Phillies are 1-6 in Eflin’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Phillies are 0-4 in Eflin’s last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
It’s hard to go against a pitcher as hot as Woodruff is and Eflin made the decision difficult, but in the end, I trust Woodruff at home more than I do Eflin on the road. That and Christian Yelich. I expect a low scoring game and I also suspect the best play is Woodruff and the Brewers bullpen beating Eflin and the Phillies bullpen. Cash with the Flash and play the Brewers to beat the Phillies on Sunday.
Full-Game Total Pick
Two good pitchers having good seasons with above average WHIP’s against middle of the pack offenses can only mean one thing, right? Well, not always but the numbers seem to favor a low scoring affair on Sunday and that’s where we Cash with the Flash by playing the under on Sunday. That and both teams have played under the total in at least 54 percent of their games this season. Cash with the Flash and play the under on Sunday!!