Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Where: Coors Field, Denver Colorado
When: Monday, May 27, 2019, 3:10 pm Eastern
We have a National League West game to consider when the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies meet under partly cloudy skies and temps in the lower seventies. This preview was written prior to the conclusion of Sunday’s slate of games and all opinions are based on the stats from Saturday nights MLB action.
Arizona is third in the NL West and plans on sending righty Zach Greinke out to the bump against the Rockies. Colorado is fourth in the West and scheduled right-hander Jon Gray to start for the Rockies, I’m the Flash and will be discussing this game with you today.
Arizona Third in NL West
Arizona is one of eight National League teams with a positive run differential and is third in the NL West and seven games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West standings. The Diamondbacks bullpen has been solid this season with a 4.31 ERA and has blown just four of its 18 save opportunities this season. The bats are also booming and are second in the National League with a .324 OBP and score 5.24 runs per game.
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) May 26, 2019
The Diamondbacks have injuries and hasn’t listed a significant one in the past 10 days. Arizona doesn’t have anyone coming off the IL either for Sunday or for this series with the Rockies.
Greinke (6-2, 2.89 ERA) has been fantastic this season and it’s a good thing he allows more groundballs than fly balls because a fly ball pitcher at Coors Field spells disaster. The only problem is 14 percent of his 30 percent fly ball rate leaves the yard and his 1.13 bombs allowed per nine innings pitched could be problematic against a Rockies side with a .231 ISO at home this season. Greinke does strike out nearly nine hitters per nine innings pitched so he might get a few free outs as Colorado strikes out 22 percent of their at-bats at home and 24 percent of the time against righties this season.
Rockies Below .500 at Coors Field This Season
The Rockies hasn’t fared very well at home this season and has posted a 10-12 record at Coors Field in 2019. Giving their bullpen just 11 save opportunities in 50 games isn’t going to win many games. The Rockies score an average of 5.22 runs per game and the blame for the minus seven-run differential rests on the shoulders of the 22nd ranked starting pitching staff and their 5.83 ERA.
Career home run number 2️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ for Nolan.
Here's to many more! pic.twitter.com/KvuI9o9XsI
— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) May 26, 2019
Colorado has injury concerns with the biggest being an injured calf to outfielder Charlie Blackmon that leaves him questionable for Sunday afternoon. Blackmon has a .356 OBP with 10 home runs and 31 RBI this season and hopefully, he’ll be able to play in this series.
Gray (4-4, 4.62 ERA) has had his struggles this season but his 3.64 xFIP suggests maybe some bad luck fell his way and Gray could see some positive regression at some point this season. Gray has a high groundball rate and 23 percent of his 28 percent fly ball rate leaves the baseball park and that’s not too shabby pitching in Coors Field. Gray may see a rise to his 9.85 strikeouts per nine innings pitched due to the Diamondbacks 24 percent strikeout rate. Arizona has power and Gray will need to be careful as he allows 1.64 bombs per nine innings pitched this season.
- The Rockies are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I don’t usually wager on teams playing at Coors Field very often and Monday I will make an exception because Greinke is 5-1 at Coors Field and has been exceptional this season. Gray has been good but not even close to what Greinke has done this season and also during his career at Coors Field. Arizona can score runs and that 5.24 runs per game could see a serious elevation on Monday afternoon. The Rockies will score but we Cash with the Flash by playing Arizona to defeat Colorado on Monday.
Full-Game Total Pick
We don’t have a total to point to yet, but most games in Colorado exceed the total and that’s how I usually bet games at Coors Field. Both teams know how to score runs and we will let Coors Field do the rest. I saw the following trends that might be helpful on Monday afternoon;
- Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Colorado.
- Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings
Cash with the Flash and play the over on Monday.