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The New York Mets will travel West to kickoff a series against the Los Angeles Dodgers here. We’ll be treated to a matchup of aces on the mound, as Jacob deGrom will start for the Mets while Clayton Kershaw will take the hill for the Dodgers. The pitching matchup might be somewhat even, but oddsmakers have the Dodgers as sizable favorites here.
Mets Getting It Together?
The Mets have been a weird team this season, just like they often are. They enter this game at an even 26-26, but it’s been a wild ride to get there. Just over a week ago, it looked like manager Mickey Callaway was about to be fired, and now the team is suddenly “hot” again. I put it in quotation marks because their recent strong stretch feels quite phony. They’ve won six of their last seven games to crawl back to .500, but all six of those wins came against the Nationals and Tigers, two of the league’s worst teams. Right before this stretch they got swept by the Marlins, the actual worst team in the league, so I’m not sold they’re on any sort of real comeback.
They’ll have Jacob deGrom on the mound here, last year’s Cy Young Award winner. deGrom hasn’t been bad this year but he hasn’t been himself either, and he enters with a 3.72 ERA. deGrom could barely win games when he was nearly flawless last year, so a 3.72 ERA just isn’t going to cut it for the Mets. Not surprisingly, New York is just 2-6 in their ace’s last eight starts. The Mets are one of the worst road teams in the league, and they’re just 5-16 in their last 21 road games. deGrom isn’t going to save them here…
Dodgers On Top
The Dodgers have made the World Series each of the past two seasons, and they look well on their way back there so far this season. They’re coming off a series sweep of the Pirates where they won the three games by a combined score of 28-11. They’ve dominated opponents all year long and have by far the best record in the National League at 35-18. They’ll have their longtime ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound here. Kershaw has been his old reliable self, and has only really looked shaky once this season. The Dodgers always play well with their franchise icon on the mound, and they’ve won each of his seven starts this season. Kershaw has a lot of experience pitching against this Mets team, and he’s done very well historically.
Clayton Kershaw's young son Charley is taking bat flips to the next level 👏
— Yahoo Sports MLB (@MLByahoosports) May 25, 2019
Current Mets hitters have a lifetime .430 OPS against Kershaw, which is absurdly low. Not surprisingly, the Dodgers are 13-2 in Kershaw’s last 15 starts against the Mets. The Dodgers have owned this matchup lately no matter who’s on the mound, as Los Angeles has won 14 of the last 17 meetings between these two teams. The Dodgers’ lineup is the most in the entire league, led by guys like MVP candidate Cody Bellinger. They should be able to get to deGrom for at least a few runs, and if they can, they’ll win this game easily.
- 20-7 in their last 27 overall
- 14-3 in their last 17 games vs. Mets
- 13-2 in Kershaw’s last 15 starts vs. Mets
- 2-6 in deGrom’s last 8 starts
- 5-16 in their last 21 road games
- 7-15 in deGrom’s last 22 starts vs. a team with a winning record
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I’m laying it all day at this price. Oddsmakers are giving the Mets way too much credit for having deGrom on the mound here. He’s a great pitcher but he simply doesn’t get any support, and the Mets are just 2-6 in his last eight starts while the Dodgers have won each of Kershaw’s last seven outings. The Dodgers have dominated this matchup in recent history, and they’ll win again here.
Prediction: Dodgers -160
Full-Game Total Pick
I also like the under a lot here. deGrom and Kershaw are still two of the league’s best pitchers, and they should be respected as such. Each pitcher has a good history against the team they’re facing, as the under is 6-2 in Kershaw’s last eight starts against the Mets, and 6-2 in deGrom’s last eight starts against the Dodgers.