Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Where: T.D. Ameritrade Park, Omaha Nebraska
When: Thursday, June 13, 2019, 8:00 pm Eastern
We have an American League Central Division matchup to consider for Thursday evening when the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals meet for game three of their three-game series at T.D. Ameritrade Park in Omaha Nebraska. This write-up was published prior to the end of Wednesday night MLB action and all opinions are based on the stats from the completion of Tuesday night MLB contests.
Detroit is fourth in the AL Central and plans for lefty Matthew Boyd to take the hill for the Tigers. Kansas City is last in the AL Central division and has scheduled righty Homer Bailey to take the bump for the Royals. I’m the Flash and will be discussing this game with you today.
Tigers Two Game Losing Streak
Detroit is rebuilding and has had a tough time lately, losing seven of their last ten games and enter Wednesday’s action hoping to end a two-game losing streak. The Tigers score an average of 3.64 runs away from Comerica Park and a good reason as to why Detroit has a lousy road record of 13 wins and 18 losses this season.
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) June 12, 2019
Detroit has several injuries on their IL and the main one being outfielder Niko Goodrum being listed as out for Wednesday with a knee injury. Goodrum has a .315 OBP with six home runs and 18 RBI this season for Detroit.
Boyd (5-4, 3.08 ERA) has an elite 1.04 WHIP and his 3.43 xFIP indicates maybe Boyd is the beneficiary of a bit of luck this season. Boyd strikes out 11.16 per nine innings pitched while allowing 1.59 walks and 1.06 bombs per nine innings pitched.
Boyd has a 41 percent fly ball rate and allows a 36 percent hard contact rate with 11 percent of his fly balls going deep and is up against a Royals with very little power as their .131 ISO indicates, strikes out 25 percent of the time against lefties with a low walk rate. It doesn’t get much better than that for Boyd on Thursday.
Royals Two Game Winning Streak
Kansas City has lost eight of its last ten games but thankfully Detroit arrived in town to give the Royals a win in game one of this series and thankfully ended an eight-game losing streak. The Royals score an average of 4.25 runs per game at home this season and has a 13-22 home record this season.
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) June 12, 2019
Infielder Hunter Dozier has found his way onto the IL with a chest injury and won’t be playing in this series. Dozier has a .398 OBP with 11 home runs and 33 RBI this season for Kansas City.
Bailey (4-6, 5.90 ERA) has a 1.51 WHIP and his 4.51 xFIP suggests Bailey has been unlucky and could see some positive regression headed his way at some point this season. Bailey strikes out 8.11 per nine innings pitched and allows 3.84 walks and 1.18 bombs per nine innings pitched.
Bailey has a 44 percent groundball rate with a 46 percent hard contact rate and allows 13.8 percent of his fly balls to leave the yard. Detroit does have some power and boasts a .151 ISO with 37 bombs and a wRC+ of 77. Detroit has a high strikeout rate Bailey could exploit and the Tigers don’t walk much but Bailey still needs to be careful with Detroit Thursday night.
- Royals are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Royals are 1-4 in Bailey’s last 5 starts.
- Royals are 1-4 in Bailey’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Tigers are 5-2 in Boyd’s last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Tigers are 5-2 in Boyd’s last 7 Thursday starts.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Homer Bailey can be a bit of a gas can and the Tigers do have enough power bats to make his life uncomfortable Thursday evening. Boyd has been good for Detroit and that elite WHIP of his should be able to handle the light hitting Royals Thursday.
Cash with the Flash and play Detroit to beat Kansas City.
Full-Game Total Pick
I think the Tigers are due for an offensive explosion and Homer Bailey is the perfect pitcher to explode on. Boyd is pretty good on the road but still allows a 3.06 ERA, so I expect Kansas City to score a couple of runs. I did see the following trends I think might be helpful on Thursday.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Boyds last 7 road starts vs. Royals.
- Over is 9-3-1 in Boyds last 13 starts vs. Royals.
Cash with the Flash and play OVER on Thursday.
Prediction: Over 9 Runs