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The red hot Colorado Rockies will host the San Diego Padres here as they kickoff a series against their NL West division rivals. The Rockies had a day off on Wednesday, while the Padres wrapped up their series against the Giants. Jon Gray will get the start for the Rockies here, while Cal Quantrill will get the nod for San Diego. Oddsmakers have the Rockies as sizable favorites here for this one.
Padres Close To Throwing In The Towel?
The San Diego Padres seem to be pretty close to throwing in the towel. They just sent down Chris Paddack, their best starter, to the minors to give him some rest, showing they aren’t really all-in on winning right now.
They started the season hot, but have been slipping ever since. Entering Wednesday, they’d gone just 5-10 in their last 15 games. They had an initial buzz off the high of the Manny Machado signing, but now that that’s over, I’m going to have a hard time backing them moving forward. They don’t play well away from Petco Park, and are just 1-4 in their last five road games. To get things turned around, they’ll turn to Cal Quantrill here. Quantrill is a rookie, so navigating Coors Field should be difficult for him. He hasn’t been too good no matter where he’s pitched, as he enters this one with a 4.85 ERA.
I always like to fade young pitchers making their first career start at Coors, as it’s a lot to get used to. With only five big league starts under his belt, I think he’ll struggle here. In those five starts, the Padres are just 1-4. San Diego has played a pretty easy schedule recently as three of their last four series’ came against the Giants, Nationals, and Marlins, so it’s pretty concerning that they aren’t playing well. This Padres club isn’t the above .500 team they looked like for a while, and there’s value in fading them still.
The Rockies couldn’t have gotten off much worse of a start, but they’ve rebounded nicely. Colorado started the year 3-12, but has been on a roll ever since to get themselves back in playoff contention. They’ve been particularly good recently, going 12-4 over their last 16 games.
As they look to keep the momentum going, they’ll have Jon Gray on the mound here. Gray has been having a solid bounce-back campaign after a rough 2018. Gray is an interesting case in that he doesn’t seem to be bothered by pitching at Coors. In fact, Gray has always been significantly better when pitching at home. In home starts this year, he has a 3.00 ERA, which balloons to 5.06 on the road. This isn’t a fluke, as it’s been holding true for years now. Oddsmakers still haven’t caught up, and don’t give Gray enough credit for his ability to navigate Coors.
— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) June 12, 2019
Knowing the stadium well and being able to handle it gives Gray a massive advantage over younger pitchers like Quantrill, who don’t know what to expect. The Rockies also have a big rest advantage here, as they got Wednesday off while the Padres had to play a night game in San Francisco and then hop on a plane to Colorado. The Rockies usually give Gray good support offensively, and they’re 7-3 in his last ten outings. They’ve also won six of the last seven times they’ve played the Padres.
- 7-3 in Gray’s last 10 starts
- 12-4 in their last 16 games overall
- 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League West
- 1-4 in Quantrill’s last 5 starts
- 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. Rockies
- 1-4 in their last 5 road games
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
There’s still value on the Rockies at this price. Gray pitches much better at home, which is rare because he plays at Coors Field. Oddsmakers aren’t properly accounting for that, and Gray will be much better than Quantrill here. The Rockies are starting to catch fire, going 12-4 in their last 16 games, while the Padres are starting to throw the towel in. This one won’t be close.
Prediction: Rockies -150
Full-Game Total Pick
I also like the over a lot here. Quantrill is a rookie who has made only five major league starts in his career, and as such he should really struggle with the altitude. He’s been shaky recently, and the over is 4-0 in his last four starts. Gray has been solid but not spectacular this year, and he should be good for giving up at least a few runs.