Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, Illinois
When: Sunday, June 16, 2019, 2:10 pm Eastern
We have an American League MLB contest to consider for Sunday when the New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox meet under cloudy skies and temps in the lower 70’s for game four of their four-game series. This write-up was published prior to the conclusion of Saturday MLB action and all opinions are based on the completed stats from Friday night MLB contests.
New York is second in the American League East and plans for lefty James Paxton to get the start against Chicago. The White Sox is third in the AL Central and scheduled righty Odrisamer Despaigne to pitch against the Yankees. I’m the Flash and will be discussing this game with you today.
Yankees Three Game Losing Streak
The Yankees have lost three consecutive games and the first two games of their series with the White Sox, scoring just six runs over the first two game with Chicago. That lack of production on the road is fewer than the 5.82 runs per game New York averages away from Yankee Stadium this season. The Yankees have outscored their opponents by 61 runs and have a winning road record of 19-14 this season.
Luke on Lucas crime. pic.twitter.com/fu1hlnRTcB
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) June 15, 2019
New York still has a sizeable IL but without any new injuries in the last three weeks and likely won’t have anyone activated for this series with Chicago.
Paxton (3-3, 4.04 ERA) has a 1.29 WHIP and his 3.96 xFIP suggests maybe Paxton has been a bit unlucky this season. Paxton strikes out 11.76 per nine while allowing 3.67 walks and less than one bomb per nine innings pitched. Paxton has a 44 percent fly ball rate with nine percent of those fly balls leaving the yard and that could be troublesome against a White Sox club with 41 bombs at home but a .141 ISO and wRC+ of 100 against lefties this season. Paxton could take advantage of the White Sox 23 percent strikeout rate and Chicago does have a low walk rate and it looks like a good matchup for Paxton Sunday afternoon.
White Sox Three Game Winning Streak
The White Sox are riding a three-game winning streak headed into Saturday’s game with the Yankees and has won six of its last ten games. Chicago averages just 4.4 runs per game at home yet has a 20-15 record at Guaranteed Rate Field this season. Infielder Jose Abreu leads Chicago with 16 home runs and 53 RBI and infielder Tim Anderson leads the club with a .319 batting average this season.
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) June 15, 2019
Chicago has a lengthy injury report with the most concerning being infielder Yoan Moncada being listed as day to day with a back injury. Moncada has a .348 OBP with 12 bombs and 39 RBI over 251 at-bats this season.
Despaigne (0-1, 4.50 ERA) is coming off his first start this season and the Nationals ended up winning the game 12-1. Despaigne scattered seven hits over six innings pitched with a pair of strikeouts and walks and did allow one bomb. He’s up against a Yankees offense with 94 home runs against righties with a .206 ISO and wRC+ of 114. New York does have a 21 percent strikeout and ten percent walk rate and Despaigne could wind up in big trouble against this Yankees club Sunday afternoon.
- White Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- White Sox are 4-10 in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Yankees are 5-1 in Paxton’s last 6 starts on grass.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Its unlikely we get a good number on the money line so we’re going to go with the Yankees at -1.5 on the run line against the White Sox. Paxton is coming off a rough start after six consecutive strong outings and the light hitting Chicago offense is a good spot for a bounce-back. Despaigne has been a decent pitcher over his brief career but this Yankees club clobbers righties and is due for a bounce-back performance.
Cash with the Flash and play the Yankees -1.5 on Sunday.
Prediction: Yankees -1.5
Full-Game Total Pick
I think we’re going to see some runs being scored at Guaranteed Rate Field on Sunday. I am quite certain the Yankees is going to score some runs and Paxton is likely going to allow at least three so playing OVER seems like the way to go. Umpire Nick Lentz is behind the plate on Sunday and these trends caught my eye;
- Over is 5-1 in Lentz’s last 6 games behind home plate vs. New York.
- Over is 4-1 in Lentz’s last 5 Sunday games behind home plate
Cash with the Flash and play OVER on Sunday!!