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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 6-16-2019

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#903 Pittsburgh
Pirates -120
#904 Miami
Marlins 8

Sunday, June 16, 2019 at 1:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Pittsburgh Pirates
C. ARCHER

31 - 39

3
W's
6
L's
5.73
ERA
1.47
WHIP

Miami Marlins
S. ALCANTARA

25 - 43

3
W's
6
L's
3.67
ERA
1.37
WHIP

Featured Video from Scott Reichel

It’s the conclusion of a set between a pair of National League teams that are trying to climb in their respective divisions down in South Beach. The Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road as they finish a three-game set with the Miami Marlins Sunday afternoon. Pittsburgh drew first blood in the series, rolling to an 11-0 victory Friday night in the series opener. In the middle game of the series Saturday, the Pirates had Dario Agrazal against the Marlins’ Pablo Lopez. First pitch in that contest was scheduled for 6:10 pm ET.

Pittsburgh Pirates Trying to Reverse Recent Struggles

Pittsburgh snapped a seven-game losing skid as they blanked Miami in the opening game of the series Friday. The Pirates entered Saturday’s action tied for the cellar in the NL Central with the Reds, eight games behind the Brewers. Bryan Reynolds (three runs) led Pittsburgh with four hits in the contest while Colin Moran (run, five RBI) added three. Moran (his 10th) and Josh Osuna (his second) each homered in the victory. Steven Brault (3-1) earned the win for Pittsburgh: he threw six scoreless innings, allowing eight hits with no walks and six strikeouts.

Chris Archer is slotted to take the hill for this contest as he logs his 12th start of the year for the Pirates. He comes in 3-6 with a 5.73 ERA, a 1.475 WHIP, 30 walks and 61 strikeouts over 59.2 innings of work on the year. Archer took the loss in his last start, which came on the road against the Braves Tuesday night. He threw six innings, allowing seven runs on eight hits, including five homers, with two walks and eight strikeouts in a 7-5 Pittsburgh defeat. Archer is 2-1 with a 5.68 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, six walks and 21 strikeouts over 19 innings in his last three starts. He is 1-1 with a 2.42 ERA, a 0.962 WHIP, six walks and 32 strikeouts over 26 innings in four career starts against the Marlins. Archer is 1-1 with a 0.64 ERA, a 0.643 WHIP, three walks and 13 strikeouts over 14 innings in two career starts at Marlins Park.

Miami Marlins Hoping to Get Back on Track

Miami was unable to get any offense going in the opening game of the set to suffer their seventh loss in the last eight games. The Marlins entered Saturday in the basement of the NL East, 15.5 games behind the streaking Braves. Miami finished with nine hits in the game while Starlin Castro was the lone player with two. The Marlins left 10 runners on base and went one for five with runners in scoring position in the loss. Trevor Richards (3-7) was saddled with the defeat as he allowed five runs on 11 hits with no walks and one strikeout over five innings of work.

Sandy Alcantara gets the ball and makes his 14th start of the season for the Marlins in this one. He comes in 3-6 with a 3.67 ERA, a 1.368 WHIP, 36 walks and 52 strikeouts over 76 innings of work this season. Alcantara took the loss in his last start, which came Tuesday at home against the Cardinals. He threw five innings, allowing four runs (one earned) on four hits with four walks and six strikeouts in a 4-1 Marlins defeat. Alcantara is 1-1 with a 1.00 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, 10 walks and 14 strikeouts over 18 innings in his last three starts. He threw a scoreless inning, allowing a hit and a walk with no strikeouts, in his only career appearance against the Pirates, which came in relief. Alcantara is 4-5 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.293 WHIP, 29 walks and 48 strikeouts over 60.1 innings in 10 career starts at Marlins Park.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

Pittsburgh has sputtered and they entered Friday in the basement of the NL Central thanks to their struggles. The Pirates have suffered from the long ball as Archer comes in leading the National League by allowing 16 homers. He gave up five blasts in his last outing and while the Marlins aren’t an offensive powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination, they have shown improvement over the first two-plus months of the season. Given the way the Pirates are floundering, you have to lean toward the Marlins, especially playing at home.

Prediction: Miami Marlins -106

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

Miami couldn’t get their bats going in key situations in the opener but they get a chance to flex their collective muscles in this one. The Marlins are dead last in the majors in runs per game (3.46) and home runs (50) this season. However, Miami does get the advantage of facing Archer, who was tagged for five homers in his last outing. The Pirates have some good bats in their lineup, led by Josh Bell. Can Pittsburgh maintain the momentum of their win in the opener and close the series with a victory?

The over is 5-0 in the Pirates’ last five on the road, 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter, 5-0 in their last five against the NL East and 7-2 in their last 9 during game 3 of a series. Miami has seen the over go 4-1 in their last five overall, 4-1 in their last five on grass and 4-1 in their last five at home. The teams have gone over the number in four of the last five meetings in Miami: given the way that Archer has struggled all season long, you have to think this one goes over the number.

Prediction: Over 8

First Five Innings Side Pick
Rating:

Archer has to prove that he can a) keep the ball in the park and b) hold a Marlins’ lineup that has struggled to put runs on the board in check. The Marlins have struggled at the plate but they get the benefit of facing a guy that has been burned by the long ball. Miami has the ability to put up crooked numbers, as we saw in the 9-0 win over the Cardinals earlier this week. It’s hard to have faith in a guy like Archer at this point in time. Miami gets the upper hand after five.

Prediction: Miami Marlins +109

First Five Innings Total Bet
Rating:

The Pirates piled up the runs in the opening game of the series, rolling to an 11-0 win as they put up four runs in the fifth to take a 5-0 advantage. In the contest Saturday, the Marlins picked up a 4-3 win in a game where all seven runs were scored before the fifth inning. Given the way that we’ve seen runs scored early in both games in the series, you have to think that the potential is there for another solid start. Look for Archer to struggle again, pushing this one over the number.

Prediction: Over 4.5

Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.

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