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Both Arizona and Colorado are fighting long playoff odds in a competitive NL Wild Card race. According to FanGraphs, the Rockies’ current postseason chances sit around 17 percent, while the DBacks come in at only 21.9 percent in part because the Los Angeles Dodgers have all but locked up the NL West race. The Rockies and DBacks enter tied for second place, but they remain a whopping 10.5-games back in the division standings, leaving them left to fend for one of the final two Wild Card spots. Colorado and Arizona both sit two games back of the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies in the playoff race. Can Colorado continue to climb the standings with a series win over the Diamondbacks to open the week?
Rockies forced to settle for series split vs. Padres
The Rockies are on the heels of a historic four-game homestand against the San Diego Padres in which the division rivals combined to scored 92 runs in a four-game series — the most in a four-game series dating back to 1900. They also racked up a total of 88 hits, which was second only to a Pirates-Phillies series back in 1922. Prior to the series, Colorado had won five straight series at home and could have swept San Diego had it not been for horrific collapses by a once steady-handed bullpen.
— JD (@OnThunderIsland) June 16, 2019
Colorado will hope to turn things around on the road by handing the ball to right-hander Antonio Sentzatela, who has battled command issues over his past five outings. In two of those starts, he has given up a combined 16 runs (14 earned), but in the other three, he’s pitched his way to a 2.00 ERA. That’s kind of how his season has been going though. The Rockies right-hander enters with a 5-5 overall record and a 5.48 ERA despite having allowed three runs or less in nine of his 12 starts.
Sentzatela has struggled in his young career versus the Diamondbacks. The Rockies’ right-hander made eight appearances (four starts) against Arizona between 2016 and 2018, finishing 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA. In his only start against Arizona this season, Sentzatela was rendered with a no-decision despite tossing six innings of two-run ball in a quality start on May 28.
Will Arizona elect to be buyers or sellers?
The DBacks clubhouse has been flooded with trade rumors all season long, but with Arizona still in the thick of the NL Wild Card hunt, there is still a possibility that the team elects to become buyers at the July 31 deadline. Arizona has performed well against teams above-.500 this season, but a meager 15-19 record since May 5 should keep the front office honest over the next month-and-a-half. The most likely Diamondback to be dealt would be right-handed ace, Zack Greinke, despite the fact that he’s still owed a ton of money and has a no-trade clause to 15 MLB teams. He is 8-2 with a 2.65 ERA with 85 strikeouts and only 14 walks this year.
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) June 11, 2019
Arizona is scheduled to hand the ball to rookie right-hander Merrill Kelly, who has managed to keep runs off the board despite modest strikeout numbers. The 30-year-old has compiled a 7-6 record and a 3.73 ERA despite striking out just 6.91 batters per nine innings of work. Kelly enters Tuesday’s start with one other career start against Colorado. He surrendered four runs on seven hits in 6 ⅔ frames in a loss on May 28.
- Diamondbacks are 8-3 in their last 11 overall.
- Diamondbacks are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Diamondbacks are 11-5 in their last 16 during game 1 of a series.
- Rockies are 2-5 in their last 7 road games.
- Rockies are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Rockies are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
These two starters battled back on May 28 with Senzatela coming out victorious in a quality outing. However, the Rockies right-hander has had his fair share of struggles against the DBacks heading into this game and according to Baseball Savant, StatCast data projects them for an expected batting average of .288 off of him heading into Tuesday’s matchup. The Rockies’ bullpen had two disastrous collapses over the weekend and Colorado is four-games under .500 on the road for the season. Take Arizona to come out on top in this NL West battle at Chase Field on Tuesday night.
Prediction: Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -147
Full-Game Total Pick
With the way the Rockies-Padres series just went over the weekend, it is hard not to take the over here. Colorado’s offense enters this matchup red-hot with 48 runs over their past four games and they’ve topped double-digits in four of their last six games overall. It’s not like Chase Field is exactly a pitchers’ park either, so expect the ball to fly once again here. Look for this game to go over the projected total in Arizona on Tuesday night.
Prediction: Over 10