Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Where: SunTrust Park, Atlanta Georgia
When: Wednesday, June 19, 2019, 7:20 pm Eastern
We have a National League East matchup to consider for Wednesday night when the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves meet for game three of their three-game series at SunTrust Park. This write-up was published prior to the conclusion of Tuesday night MLB action and all opinions are based on the stats from Monday night MLB contests.
New York is third in the NL East and intends on starting lefty Stephen Matz against Atlanta. Atlanta is first in the NL East and plans for southpaw Max Fried to start against the Braves. I’m the Flash and will be discussing this game with you today.
Mets Have Lost Six of Last Ten Games
The Mets are third in the National League East and have lost six of its last ten games and enter Tuesday nights game with Atlanta hoping to end a two-game losing streak. New York scores an average of 4.34 runs per game on the road and has a road record of 14-24 this season. Infielder Pete Alonso leads the Mets with 23 bombs and a team-high 54 RBI and infielder Jeff McNeil has a club-high .327 batting average this season.
— New York Mets (@Mets) June 18, 2019
New York has a lengthy injury report but isn’t listing any significant injuries for their series with Atlanta.
Matz (5-4, 3.93 ERA) has a 1.33 WHIP but his 4.11 xFIP suggests maybe Matz has been a bit lucky this season. Matz strikes out 9.44 per nine innings pitched with 2.88 walks and allows 1.70 bombs per nine innings pitched this season. Atlanta has hit an NL best 67 bombs at home and has a .209 ISO and wRC+ of 113 and a 17 percent strikeout rate this season against left-handed pitching so Matz better has his “A” game with him Wednesday night.
Braves Three Game Lead Over Phillies
Atlanta has won nine of their last ten games and has moved into first place in the NL East and leads by three games over the Philadelphia Phillies and enter Tuesday night hoping to extend a two-game winning streak. The Braves score an average of 5.94 runs per game and a 23-16 record at SunTrust Park this season. Infielder Freddie Freeman leads the Braves in several offensive categories this season; Freeman has 19 home runs with 52 RBI and a .313 batting average this season.
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) June 18, 2019
The Braves aren’t listing any significant injuries for their matchup with the Mets.
Fried (7-3, 4.11 ERA) has a 1.33 WHIP and his 3.65 xFIP suggests maybe some positive regression is headed the southpaw’s way at some point this season. Fried strikes out 8.22 while walking 2.47 and allowing 1.29 bombs over nine innings pitched this season and he’ll be tested by the Mets as they’ve squashed 43 road bombs and boast a .198 ISO with a wRC+ of 120 and 24.5 percent strikeout rate against lefties this season. Fried could potentially have his hands full Wednesday night.
- Braves are 6-0 in Fried’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Braves are 6-1 in Fried’s last 7 starts.
- Braves are 6-1 in Fried’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
- Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Mets are 2-10 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Hopefully, we get a good price on this game because the way Atlanta has been playing lately, it’s hard to bet against the Braves. I like Matz but he’s not that good away from Citi Field this season. Fried, on the other hand, has been decent at home and should be able to keep the ball in the yard Wednesday night.
Cash with the Flash and play Atlanta to beat New York.
Full-Game Total Pick
This could be a high scoring game as we have two of the top ten offenses in baseball against southpaws. Both pitchers have below average WHIP numbers and that usually means runs get scored when these two pitches. Umpire Sean Barber is behind the dish Wednesday night and these trends might be helpful on Wednesday.
- Over is 4-0 in Barbers last 4 games behind home plate vs. Atlanta.
- Over is 9-2 in Barbers last 11 games behind home plate.
Cash with the Flash and play OVER on Wednesday night.