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Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Where and when: Miller Park, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Thursday, 8:10 pm EST
Game one of a four-game series at Miller Park in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, between the Cincinnati Reds and the Milwaukee Brewers will take place on Thursday night at 8:10 pm EST. The Reds will be looking to continue their recent success while also increasing their positioning within the NL Central Division. On the other hand, the Brewers, after settling for a tie in a two-game set versus the Houston Astros, have had a disastrous road trip in losing four of their next five.
And while they will look to salvage a three-game set versus the San Diego Padres on Wednesday, it is fair to say that the Brewers have been shells of themselves lately. In fact, their offense, which averages a tad under five runs per game, has only plated one run during their set with the Padres. Their last defeat was a 4-1 loss as pitcher Brandon Woodruff provided the bulk of the offense in going 2-2 on the night while Christian Yelich continues his hitting streak in going 1-4 in losing fashion. Woodruff, however, lost for the second time this year while ending the game allowing four earned runs along with six strikeouts in six innings.
In all, Milwaukee will certainly be looking for some offense for a Reds team that they have picked up victories against in four of their five contests this year. It is important to note that the wins have been slim against the Reds in those meetings. Nonetheless, Milwaukee scored eleven runs in an 11-9 win in their last meeting.
As stated, the Reds have gained a bit of momentum in winning their last three outings. They have picked up victories in each of these contests and will be looking for a sweep versus the Houston Astros on Wednesday night after homering three times off Justin Verlander in game-two in a 4-3 win on Tuesday night. Cincinnati could only muster six hits on the night, however, they certainly made them count as Derek Dietrich hit a two-run homer to spark the offense, his 18th of the year. Also, Jesse Winker also had a homer in the contest after going 0–2 in the opener.
The Reds will now face off versus Milwaukee at a park where they have had little success. In fact, the Brewers have beat up on Cincinnati in sixteen of their last twenty-two meetings in Wisconsin. However, the visitors have had great performances from their bullpen all season long, as illustrated by their collective ERA (3.47) along with WHIP (1.23). The problem continues to be their defense, which ranks sixth in the league in errors with thirty-four on the year.
Roark winless in last three outings
Tanner Roark (2-6) continues to look for his first win in the month of June. He will now concentrate on ending a three-game losing streak when he takes the hill in game one of the Reds’ road set versus the Brewers. Roark may indeed have some success as he has won two of his last three outings when pitching at Miller Park. In fact, he has pitched at least seven innings in each of these contests while allowing just one earned run in addition to recording a total of twenty-eight strikeouts.
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) June 19, 2019
However, it will be important to note that the right-hander went just four innings while allowing three earned in a 4-3 loss to Milwaukee on April 1st at Great American Ball Park to where he received the no-decision. Nonetheless, Roark has shined on the road in his last five outings as he has picked up victories in three (one loss, one no-decision). The team has benefitted from his presence away from home as well as they are winners of four of their last six.
Christian Yelich has been walked by Roark eleven times in forty-two at bats. The hitting leader has also struck out seven times versus the right-hander while batting .262 for his career. Travis Shaw (.300 on 10 AB) has struck out a total of three times versus Roark while Ryan Braun (.278 on 18 AB) has had some success, yet, has six strikeouts as well. Finally, Lorenzo Cain is batting .182 on 11 at bats.
Nelson hopes third time is the charm
After recovering from a shoulder injury, Jimmy Nelson will return to the mound for his third start since 2017 on Thursday night versus the Reds. And while he returned to the hill with much promise, the right-hander has fallen on difficult times lately in allowing eight earned runs in two starts this season in losses to the Miami Marlins and the San Francisco Giants. In fact, Nelson was destroyed by the Marlins in an 8-3 loss where the team was highly favored at -239 on the money line.
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) June 19, 2019
During these outings, Nelson labored on the hill in pitching a combined seven innings while walking three batters in each. Of course, due to these lackluster performances, Nelson’s ERA has skyrocketed to 10.29 as he will now look to win his first start of the 2019 season. It will be important to note that the right-hander was tagged for a whopping nine earned runs on eleven hits in only three innings of work at Miller Park versus the Reds in August of 2017 in an 11-10 loss.
- MIL is 6-2 in their last 8 Thu. games.
- MIL is 7-2 in Nelson’s last 9 home starts.
- No trends to report
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The Brewers will certainly look forward to some home cooking when they return to Miller Park on Thursday night. Also, beginning their ten-game home stand with an opponent in the Reds that they have dominated, this set should be what is needed to get them back on track. Neither pitcher has been solid lately and will certainly give up some runs to their opponents. However, the Brewers will look forward to the offensive power surge after stinking it up versus the San Francisco Giants and the Padres.
Prediction: Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -150
Full-Game Total Pick
As stated, both Roark and Nelson have been down right difficult to watch lately, as each will come to the hill look to end losing streaks. The over certainly seems to be the play for this matchup as Roark has been the weak link in the rotation for a Red’s staff that is ranked in the top ten in the league. However, the Brewers are looking to right themselves at the plate as they will drive up the score early and often in the opener on Thursday.
Prediction: Pick: Over 9.5
Full-Game Prop Bet
Yes, the Brewers are struggling at this time in the season. However, they have dominated the Reds in recent matchups, as stated, and will do the same in this contest. Besides, one cannot help but to roll with the plus money (+130, according to PointsBet) and strongly back the Brewers at home versus Cincinnati.
Prediction: Pick: Milwaukee Brewers
First Five Innings Side Pick
Both Nelson and Roark have had some awful outings in the past. However, I do not have much confidence in the latter, particularly versus the lineup for Milwaukee. With that being the case, look for Yelich and company to get to shine versus the right-hander as they will cover the run line after five. Expect Nelson to rebound on the hill on this night.
Prediction: Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -0.5
First Five Innings Total Bet
Expect the over to be the strong play in after five innings with Nelson and Roark battling on the hill. As pointed out, each have had a rough go of it as of late and with Roark having some issues in facing many of the big bats for the Brewers, look for the score to balloon early in a high-scoring contest.
Prediction: Pick: Over 5.5
First Five Innings Prop Prediction
Again, the Brewers will get back on track after a disastrous road trip. They will put up some runs early on a pitcher that they have had success against in the past in Roark while, most importantly, covering the money line to boot as their offense will get back to basics.
Prediction: Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -145