Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Where: Globe Life Park in Arlington
When: Thursday, June 20, 2019, 2:05 pm Eastern
We have an American League MLB contest to consider for Thursday afternoon when the Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers meet for game four of their four-game series. This preview was published prior to the conclusion of Wednesday night MLB action and all opinions are based on the stats from Tuesday night MLB contests.
Cleveland is second in the American League Central and plans for right-hander Shane Bieber to get the start against Texas. The Rangers is second in the American League West and scheduled southpaw Mike Minor to pitch against the Indians on Thursday afternoon. I’m the Flash and will be discussing this game with you today.
Indians Heating Up
Cleveland is starting to heat up a bit and has won seven of its last ten games and enters Wednesday night with a one-game winning streak. The Indians are one of nine American League teams outscoring their opponents and has a road record of 18-17 this season. Infielder Carlos Santana leads Cleveland with 14 home runs and a team-high 42 RBI and infielder Francisco Lindor leads the Tribe with a .294 batting average this season.
— Cleveland Indians (@Indians) June 19, 2019
The Indians have injury concerns but no one significant is listed other than what they’ve been dealing with the past several weeks.
Bieber (6-2, 3.92 ERA) has a nearly elite 1.09 WHIP and his 3.30 xFIP suggests Bieber may have been unlucky and some positive regression is headed his way. Bieber strikes out 11.44 per nine while allowing 2.22 walks and 1.69 bombs per nine innings pitched. Texas has blasted 54 bombs at home this season and boasts a .195 ISO and wRC+ of 103 and that could cause Bieber some real trouble. Bieber could benefit from the Rangers high strikeout rate and needs to be careful with the high walk rate of 9.7 percent Texas boasts this season.
Texas Second in American League West
Texas is second in the American League West and has won five of their last ten games. Texas has outscored its opponents by 32 runs this season and has a strong home record of 25-13 this season. Outfielder Joey Gallo leads Texas with 17 home runs, infielder Elvis Andrus has a club-high .298 batting average and outfielder Hunter Pence leads the Rangers with 48 RBI this season.
Elvis wanted to join the party! pic.twitter.com/hHmnBXdSra
— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) June 18, 2019
Both Pence and Gallo are on the Rangers IL and neither will be coming off for the remainder of this series.
Minor (6-4, 2.63 ERA) has a 1.18 WHIP and his 4.02 xFIP suggests maybe Minor has been lucky this season and could see some regression at some point this season. Minor strikes out 9.31 per nine innings and allows 3.01 walks and 1.03 home runs per nine innings pitched. Cleveland has hit 45 home runs away from Progressive Field this season and has a .153 ISO and wRC+ of 84 this season. 21 percent of the Indians at-bats against lefties result in a strikeout and Minor better be careful with the Indians 10.3 percent walk rate.
- Rangers are 1-5 in Minor’s last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Rangers are 0-5 in Minor’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rangers are 0-4 in Minor’s last 4 Thursday starts.
- Indians are 10-2 in Bieber’s last 12 road starts.
- Indians are 5-1 in Bieber’s last 6 starts.
- Indians are 5-1 in Bieber’s last 6 starts on grass.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
We should get a good price on Cleveland and I think we should run with it. Bieber has been fantastic and might have a higher road ERA but is 4-1 on the road and against a Texas side that isn’t as good without Pence and Gallo in the lineup. Minor has also been good at home but the Indians bats are starting to heat up and I suspect that Minor will see some of that regression on Thursday afternoon.
Cash with the Flash and play the Indians to beat the Rangers Thursday afternoon!!
Full-Game Total Pick
I don’t think we’re going to see a very high total and I suspect the Indians offense might generate some runs and we know Bieber allows at least four per game on the road so I think the over is the play for this game. Umpire Doug Eddings is behind the plate and these trends might be useful for Thursday;
- Over is 4-0-1 in Eddings’ last 5 games behind home plate.
- Over is 12-3-1 in Eddings’ last 16 Thursday games behind home plate.
Cash with the Flash and play OVER on Thursday!!