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The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs will kickoff a four-game series here at Wrigley Field. Both teams have been up and down recently, so each side could really use a win here. Walker Lockett will be on the mound for the Mets, with Tyler Chatwood getting the start for Chicago. Oddsmakers have the Cubs as relatively modest favorites here for this one.
It’s been a very dramatic season for the Mets. In typical Mets fashion, they started off hot before promptly collapsing. They’ve gone through all sorts of turmoil, including almost firing their coach, and have emerged as a mediocre team. They enter this one at 35-38 and have been treading water for a while now. That being said they’ve been terrible on the road, and are 7-21 in their last 28 games away from home. They were originally going to start Wilmer Font here, but they ended up scratching him in favor of Walker Lockett. Lockett was a surprise call-up from the minors, and not many saw this one coming.
Lockett was acquired in a trade earlier this offseason, and he’s very inexperienced. The right-hander only has four appearances and three starts under his belt, which came last year with the Padres. He didn’t look ready in those outings, as he had a 9.60 ERA and 2.13 WHIP. He also hasn’t even pitched very much in the minors this year, as he was dealing with an injury to start the season. He’s only pitched 24 and 2/3 innings in the minors all year. Lockett hasn’t pitched in the majors since August 11th of last year, and so he could be rusty for this one. Pitching on the road at Wrigley Field is tough for any young pitcher, especially one who is being called up on short notice without much big league experience.
Cubs Up And Down
The Cubs have been having a fine season overall, although things have been up and down recently. They enter this one at 39-33, but had lost four of five games entering Wednesday. That being said, I’m not too concerned. They’ve still got a talented roster, and will have the better pitcher on the mound here as they start Tyler Chatwood. They signed Chatwood to a big contract last offseason, and his first year with the Cubs didn’t go as planned. He showed a ton of promise with the Rockies, so I think last year was an abnormality. He’s been very good this year, entering this one with a 3.60 ERA. Chatwood has mostly pitched out of the bullpen this year, but is getting another crack in the rotation here.
Tyler Chatwood collects six Easter eggs.
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) April 22, 2019
He’s been much better at home, with a 1.89 ERA at Wrigley. In his one other start this season, he pitched six scoreless innings and only gave up two hits. Dating back to last season, the Cubs are 6-1 in his last seven starts. Chicago has completely dominated this matchup recently, winning nine of their last ten games against the Mets. The Cubs sometimes get lackadaisical and slack off, but they should be very locked in and focused here for a big series at home against a team with a large national following.
- 6-1 in Chatwood’s last 7 starts
- 6-2 in their last 8 home games
- 15-6 in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400
- 7-21 in their last 28 road games
- 1-9 in their last 10 games vs. Cubs
- 1-6 in their last 7 vs. National League Central
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
It’s pretty strange that the Cubs aren’t larger favorites here at home. Chatwood was dominant in his last start, tossing six scoreless innings while giving up just two hits. The Mets are calling up a pitcher from the minors who has only three career starts under his belt, so he should get roughed up. The Cubs have won nine of the last ten meetings between these teams and the Mets are always terrible on the road. This one won’t be particularly close.
Prediction: Cubs -135
Full-Game Total Pick
I also like the over a lot here. The Mets are sending out someone with virtually no experience, and Lockett has barely even pitched in the minors this year. Pitching on the road in a tough environment, he should struggle. Chatwood has only made one start this season and has been pitching out of the bullpen, so he could get roughed up too.