Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Two struggling teams will face off here as the Baltimore Orioles host the San Diego Padres in the second game of their series. San Diego had lost three straight games entering this series, while the Orioles had lost 11 of 12. Matt Strahm will start for the Padres here, with Dylan Bundy taking the mound for Baltimore. Oddsmakers have the Padres as a solid road favorite here.
The Padres had a lot of excitement surrounding the team for a first time in a long time entering this season. Their signing of Manny Machado to a record-breaking contract did exactly what they hoped, it injected a lot of energy into a franchise that had looked lifeless recently. High off the buzz, they got off to a hot start. While they’ve remained exciting with highly entertaining young players like Fernando Tatis Jr., they haven’t been able to keep the winning going. They’ve fallen off recently, and have slipped to fourth place in the NL West. They’ll have Matt Strahm on the mound here, who has struggled recently.
Strahm enters this one with a 4.85 ERA, but his ERA is a whopping 12.08 in three June starts. He’s prone to giving up the long ball, as he’s allowed multiple home runs in five straight starts. Strahm is clearly struggling at the moment, and he’ll need to snap out of it here on the road if the Padres want to come away victorious. They’ve been able to win some games at Petco Park but have struggled on the road, going 2-8 in their last ten games away from home. They haven’t even been able to take care of business against really bad teams, as they’re just 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Orioles Bottoming Out
The Orioles are in for another tough season. They were one of the worst teams in recent MLB history last year, which resulted in the firing of Buck Showalter after the season. They haven’t been much better this year, and the rebuild hasn’t sped up at all. They enter this one ice cold, having lost 11 of their last 12 games heading into Tuesday. As they look to rebound, they’ll have Dylan Bundy on the mound here. Bundy is a former top prospect who has always been high on talent but has never been able to put it all together. He’s been a little better than Strahm overall this year, entering this one with a 4.59 ERA. Unlike Strahm, he’s been getting better instead of worse recently.
Dylan Bundy, filthy 93mph Fastball Movement. pic.twitter.com/DGbq6O0Tg0
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 4, 2017
His ERA was 6.67 at the end of April, and he’s actually been pitching really well the last couple of months. Across nine starts in May and June, Bundy has a very solid 3.46 ERA. Baltimore’s offense has actually looked pretty good recently, mustering 20 runs over their last three games. It’s been the pitching staff that has been killing them, and if Bundy can keep up his recent performances then they might be in decent shape here. The perception of the Orioles is so low, that oddsmakers have begun severely downgrading them. It’s gotten a bit out of hand, and this Orioles team might not be quite as bad as we all think.
- 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. Padres
- 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter
- 12-4 in their last 16 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter
- 2-8 in their last 10 road games
- 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400
- 5-11 in their last 16 vs. American League East
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Getting the Orioles as a home underdog at this price is an absolute steal. These two pitchers have been trending in exact opposite directions recently, as Strahm has been falling apart while Bundy has looked very good. With the better pitcher on the mound and arguably the hotter lineup, there’s no way Baltimore should be an underdog here.
Prediction: Orioles +125
Full-Game Total Pick
I also like the over a lot here. Strahm has been collapsing recently, with an ERA above 12.00 in three June starts. Bundy is picked it up recently, but he’s still been very mediocre overall this year. The Orioles’ offense is better than people realize as they’ve put up 20 runs over their last three games, and the over is 5-1 in their last six contests.