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The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Los Angeles Dodgers for the third game of their four-game set. Kenta Maeda will take the mound for the Dodgers here, while Nick Pivetta gets the start for Philadelphia. Oddsmakers have the Dodgers as sizable road favorites here.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are looking to make it back to their third straight World Series, and they’ve looked good so far following the All-Star break. They’ve already put up some huge numbers, including a 16-2 win in the opening game of this series on Monday. As they look to keep the momentum going, they’ll have Kenta Maeda on the mound here. Maeda has been having a solid if not spectacular season, entering this one with a 3.82 ERA. Maeda usually pitches reasonably well, but he hardly ever dominates. In each of his last six starts he’s given up at least two earned runs, so you aren’t going to see him throw a shutout here. He also struggles on the road, and has some stark home/road splits.
His ERA at home is 2.26, but that balloons out to 5.44 in games away from home. Not surprisingly, the Dodgers are just 2-7 in his last nine road starts. The last time he pitched at Citizens Bank Park, he gave up two home runs and four earned runs. Maeda has only made it through six innings in one of his ten road starts this year, so you can expect to see a lot of this Dodgers bullpen here. That might not bode well, because Los Angeles’ bullpen has been pretty shaky and they’ve also been used a lot. The Dodgers just played a 12 inning game a few days ago and didn’t get Monday off like a lot of teams, so their relievers could be gassed.
Phillies Need This One
The Phillies aren’t in terrible shape, but they do need to start winning some games. They’ve slipped a bit and have fallen behind both the Nationals and Braves in the division. With Atlanta pulling away in the NL East, a wild card berth seems like Philly’s best bet. As of this writing, they’re 48-46 and tied for the second wild card spot. Fortunately for the Phillies they’ve played much better at home this year, going 28-20 in games they’re hosting. They could really use a win here, and they’ll have Nick Pivetta on the mound as they try and get one. Pivetta has been inconsistent and hard to pin down this season.
Nick Pivetta, assessed by Gabe Kapler here, allows three runs on six hits in five innings and #Phillies are blanked 4-0 by #Nats while getting eight hits and stranding nine runners. pic.twitter.com/NjBP5BPizY
— kevintresolini (@kevintresolini) July 13, 2019
He has flashes of brilliance, as evidenced by the complete game he tossed about a month ago, and he also has complete meltdowns. You never know which Pivetta you’re going to get, but he’s pitched better at home recently and the Phillies are 4-1 in his last five home starts. When he pitched against the Dodgers back in June he had one of his best starts of the year, giving up just three hits in six scoreless innings. This game will likely come down to Philly’s lineup and how well they can hit Maeda, and how early they can chase him from the game. The Phillies’ big offseason acquisition, Bryce Harper, has been showing signs of life recently, with multi-hit games in three of his last five.
- 4-1 in Pivetta’s last 5 home starts
- 9-4 in Pivetta’s last 13 home starts vs. a team with a winning record
- 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series
- 2-5 in Maeda’s last 7 starts
- 2-7 in Maeda’s last 9 road starts
- 3-9 in Maeda’s last 12 road starts vs. a team with a winning record
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Getting the Phillies as a home underdog at this price is a steal. Maeda is terrible on the road, so the Dodgers really don’t have much of an advantage at all on the mound. The last time Pivetta faced the Dodgers, he tossed six shutout innings. The Phillies need this one more, and the Dodgers are just 2-7 in Maeda’s last nine road starts. The Dodgers are being overhyped and overvalued.
Prediction: Phillies +130
Full-Game Total Pick
I also like the over a lot here. Maeda just doesn’t look comfortable away from home, and he has a 5.44 ERA in ten road starts this year. He doesn’t make it very deep into games, so we should see a lot of Los Angeles’ mediocre middle bullpen here. Pivetta has been bad all year, entering this one with a 5.81 ERA, so both sides should have some success on offense.