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San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 7-17-2019

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#961 San Diego
Padres -140
#962 Miami
Marlins 8

Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 7:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

San Diego Padres
C. PADDACK

45 - 49

5
W's
4
L's
2.84
ERA
0.92
WHIP

Miami Marlins
T. RICHARDS

35 - 57

3
W's
10
L's
4.18
ERA
1.34
WHIP

Featured Video from Scott Reichel

The Miami Marlins will host the San Diego Padres for the second game of their three-game series here. Rookie Chris Paddack will start for the Padres here, while Trevor Richards takes the mound for Miami. The Marlins have been having a rough season, while the Padres have been more up and down. Oddsmakers have San Diego as a sizable road favorite here.

Paddack Cruising

The Padres have been having an interesting season. After they signed Manny Machado to his massive contract and made some other moves, there was a sense of optimism around the team for the first time in a while. The energy surrounding the franchise has gone way up thanks to the presence of Machado and young studs like Fernando Tatis Jr., and they’re competitive for the first time in years. Things have been mixed recently, and they entered Tuesday on a three-game losing streak. As they look to get back on the right track, they’ll have Chris Paddack on the mound here. Paddack is a rookie sensation who is another sign of better things to come for the Padres.

At the age of 23, Paddack has a 2.84 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Facing off against one of the weakest lineups in the entire league, Paddack shouldn’t have too much trouble, the only question is how much run support he’ll get from San Diego’s lineup. The Padres have easily won his last two starts, as he only gave up one total run across 11 and 2/3 innings in those starts. The Padres are trying to limit Paddack’s innings by not letting him go too deep into games, so you’ll also need to have confidence in this San Diego bullpen not to blow a potential lead. San Diego’s offense isn’t particularly explosive, so if they win it’ll likely be a pretty low scoring game like usual.

Marlins Spiraling

The Marlins have been having yet another tough year. They’re in the midst of a seemingly endless rebuild, and entered Tuesday at 34-57. There aren’t many reasons to be optimistic if you’re a Marlins fan, as they’ve traded away most of their good pieces. They aren’t going to be winning anything this year, and don’t have much to play for. They’re just playing out the string, and as such I think a lack of motivation could be a factor moving forward. It’s not like they’re going to have a raucous crowd backing them and giving them much-needed energy. While the Padres will start Paddack, the Marlins will have a young pitcher of their own on the mound here in Trevor Richards.

Richards has shown some promise at times, but he’s been very shaky recently. Over his past three starts, he’s given up 13 runs, including at least three in each outing. In his most recent start against the Braves, he gave up 11 baserunners and four earned runs. He hasn’t fared too well in terms of wins and losses, as the Marlins are just 7-21 in his last 28 starts. Miami has managed to be even worse lately, and they’re 2-8 in their last ten games. While Richards hasn’t been great recently, the real problem is the offense. They’ve mustered just 25 runs over their last nine contests, an average of less than three per game.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

There’s still great value on the Padres at this price. Simply put, I don’t see how the Marlins win this one. Miami is just playing out the string, and they’re just 2-8 in their last ten games. They barely draw a crowd, so it’s not like they should be given any credit for home-field advantage. Paddack has been dominant in his last couple of starts, and I think he’ll lead San Diego to an easy victory here.

Prediction: Padres -150

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

The under also makes a lot of sense here. Paddack has been having a fantastic rookie season, and he just threw 5 and 2/3 innings of shutout ball against the Dodgers. If he can do that on the road against the toughest lineup in the league, he should have no trouble with this weak Miami offense. The under is also 6-1 in San Diego’s last seven games, and 6-2-1 in Miami’s last nine games.

Prediction: Under

Alex Porter

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