Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
When: Saturday, July 20, 2019, 7:05 pm Eastern
We have an American League East matchup to consider when the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles meet for game two of their three-game scheduled series. This write-up was published prior to the finish of Friday night’s game and all opinions are based on the stats from Thursday night’s MLB action.
Boston is third in the American League East and scheduled righty Rick Porcello to make the start against Baltimore. The Orioles is last in the division and plans for righty Thomas Eshelman to make the start against the Red Sox. I’m the Flash and will be discussing this game with you today.
Boston Two Games Out of Wild Card Race
Boston is playing good baseball and is 7-3 over their last 10 games and enters this series riding a two-game winning streak. The Red Sox sit just two games away from an American League Wild Card and is 10 games behind division-leading New York Yankees. Boston has outscored its opponents by 55 runs and has a 29-19 record away from Fenway Park this season.
— Red Sox (@RedSox) July 19, 2019
Porcello (7-7, 5.37 ERA) has a 1.42 WHIP and his 5.28 xFIP suggests maybe some slight regression is headed the former AL Cy Young Award winner’s way at some point this season. Porcello has allowed 21 earned runs over his past 25 innings pitched and strikes out 7.07 per nine innings with 2.64 walks and 1.36 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched.
Baltimore scores an average of 4.25 runs per game with 64 bombs at Oriole Park at Camden Yards and blasted 75 bombs against right-handed pitching this season.
Orioles Rebuild Continues
The Orioles are rebuilding and is playing .500 ball over their last 10 games and enter their series with Boston riding a one-game winning streak. Baltimore is 25 games away from a Wild Card and 33 games behind the New York Yankees for the top spot in the division. Baltimore has been outscored by an MLB worst 187 runs and has a 13-35 record at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) July 18, 2019
Eshelman (0-1, 5.06 ERA) has a 1.22 WHIP and his 4.50 WHIP suggests maybe some positive regression is in store for the rookie right-hander at some point this season. Eshelman has allowed six earned runs over his past 10.2 innings pitched and strikes out 5.91 per nine innings pitched with 1.69 walks and 1.69 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched.
Boston scores an average 5.66 runs per game and smacked 74 home runs away from Fenway Park and has slapped 103 balls out of the yard against right-handed pitching this season.
- Orioles are 13-41 in their last 54 games on grass.
- Orioles are 17-58 in their last 75 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Orioles are 14-51 in their last 65 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Red Sox are 5-1 in Porcello’s last 6 road starts.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in Porcello’s last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in Porcello’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The Orioles aren’t a very good baseball team and Boston will traipse out a pitcher that hasn’t been very good much of this season. But Porcello should be enough to defeat Baltimore on Saturday afternoon. Eshelman allows too many home runs and is up against a Boston side that mashes the ball. This one shouldn’t even be close on Saturday.
Cash with the Flash and play Boston to beat Baltimore Saturday evening.
Full-Game Total Pick
The total is fairly high and that’s due to the public not believing in Porcello and maybe even underestimating Eshelman. Either way, I don’t see these two clubs combining to exceed the total. I saw the following trend I think might be helpful for Saturday.
- Under is 4-1 in Porcello’s last 5 road starts vs. Orioles.
Cash with the Flash and play UNDER on Saturday.
Prediction: Under 11.5 Runs