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The Milwaukee Brewers take on the Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday in the third game of a four-game series. The Brewers won the first game of the series to improve to 51-47 while the Diamondbacks fell to 49-48. Left-hander Gio Gonzalez (2-1) gets the start for the Brewers, while right-hander Zach Greinke (10-4) gets the start for the Diamondbacks. Game time is 8:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Brewers have some momentum
The Milwaukee Brewers have had a difficult month of July, losing 8 games already this month and dropping into second place in the AL Central with a record of 51-47. But they have gotten back on track as of late, winning their last 3 games, including 2 over the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves. On Thursday they kept the momentum going by beating the Diamondbacks 5-1. Zach Davies (8-2) got the win, allowing one run in 7 innings. Ryan Braun had a home run and 2 RBIs to lead Milwaukee.
Ryan Braun returned from the All-Star break with a new batting stance. He says the idea is to get his hands to the right spot more quickly. pic.twitter.com/j4WvPRY8NE
— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) July 13, 2019
The Brewers offense has sputtered a bit. They average 4.8 runs per game, which is 16th in the MLB. They have a team batting average of .248, which is 19th in the league, and a slugging percentage of .449, which is 10th. They are 3rd in home runs. Christian Yelich’s average has dipped to .313 but he leads the majors in home runs with 22 and is 6th in RBIs with 49. Yasmani Grandal is hitting .277 with 12 HRs and 30 RBIs, while Mike Moustakas is hitting .268 with 16 HRs and 37 RBIs. Ryan Braun is batting .269 with 9 HRs and 31 RBIs, while Lorenzo Cain is hitting .261 with 4 HRs and 24 RBIs. Moustakas is questionable for Wednesday but Travis Shaw is due to come off the IL.
Diamondbacks have been steady
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been very average. They’ve hovered right around .500 all year, very steady, but have not been able to break out of the pack behind the Dodgers in the NL West. They had won 2 straight against Texas and then followed that up with a 5-1 loss to the Brewers. They couldn’t get much going against Brewers starter Zach Davies, banging out only 8 hits. Ketel Marte had 2 hits while Jake Lamb had a hit and an RBI. Merrill Kelly pitched great for the Diamondbacks, allowing 1 run in 7 innings but the bullpen gave it away. Yoan Lopez (1-3) took the loss. They are 49-48, 14 games behind the Dodgers.
The Diamondbacks’ offense has been excellent. They average 5.1 runs per game, which is 10th in the MLB, They are batting .259 as a team, which is 10th in the league, and they have a slugging percentage of .448, which is 11th. They are 13th in home runs. Ketel Marte leads the Diamondbacks batting .315 with 21 HRs and 58 RBIs while Eduardo Escobar is hitting .290 with 21 HRs and 75 RBIs. David Peralta is batting .289 with 9 HRs and 44 RBIs while Adam Jones is hitting .268 with 13 HRs and 44 RBIs. Christian Walker is batting, 259 with 18 HRs and 46 RBIs while Nick Ahmed is batting .267 with 9 HRs and 43 RBIs.
- Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
- Diamondbacks are 8-1 in Greinke’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 6-1 in Greinke’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in Greinke’s last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
- Diamondbacks are 6-2 in Greinke’s last 8 starts.
- Diamondbacks are 37-17 in Greinke’s last 54 home starts.
- Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Brewers are 3-8 in their last 11 road games.
- Brewers are 3-9 in their last 12 vs. National League West.
- Brewers are 2-7 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Take the Diamondbacks here. Greinke was not great in his last outing but he has been excellent all year so I like him to bounce back and pitch well here against a sputtering Brewers offense. Also, Greinke has been excellent at home. On the flip side, Gonzalez is making his first start in awhile coming off an injury. While he will help them down the stretch, it may take him a few starts to find his groove. So, I’m going with the home team here.
Prediction: Arizona -146
Full-Game Total Pick
Take the under. Greinke’s last outing was a bit of an anomaly as he has been very stingy in allowing runs. Gonzalez is a bit of a wildcard coming off an injury, but I like this game to be played in the under. I see Greinke holding the Brewers to right around his ERA as he has pitched in games in the under most of the year. The under is 4-1 in Greinke’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest and 4-1 in his last 5 starts vs. the National League Central. Also, the under is 5-0 in Gonzalezs last 5 road starts and 7-0 in his last 7 starts overall.