MLB: Saturday, August 11, Petco Park, San Diego, California, 8:40 PM ET.
The Philadelphia Phillies will be trying to bounce back from their series loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks when they face the San Diego Padres in the second game of their three-game weekend series on Saturday night.
Aaron Nola, who is 12-3 with a 2.37 ERA, will get the start for the Phillies. The Padres will hand the ball to Walker Lockett, who is 0-2 with a 9.28 ERA.
Phillies Trying To Stay On Top Of NL East
After losing two out of three games to the Diamondbacks, the Phillies’ lead in the NL East has shrunk to half a game over the Atlanta Braves. The team will be trying to increase their lead in the division with a series win over the Padres.
Offensively, the Phillies rank in the bottom half of the league. The team has a .235 batting average, which is 28th in the league. Their .318 on base percentage is 17th, while their .393 slugging percentage is 23rd in the league. The Phillies have scored 498 runs this season, which is 20th in the league.
Philadelphia’s pitching has been much better than the team’s offense. Opponents have a .241 batting average against the Phillies, which is 12th in the league. Their 3.75 ERA is sixth, while their 1.23 WHIP is ninth in the league.
In his last start, Nola gave up seven hits and two earned runs in six innings, helping the Phillies get a 5-3 win over the Miami Marlins. They will need another solid effort from him to get the win on Saturday.
Padres Looking For First Series Win Over Phillies
The Padres played the Phillies in their first series of the season right after the All-Star break, but dropped two of three games to the NL East leaders. They will be trying to rebound from that series loss and get their first series win over the Phillies this season.
Offensively, the Padres haven’t had much go right for them this season. The team has a .235 batting average, which is 29th in the league. Their .298 on base percentage is 29th, while their .372 slugging percentage is also 29th in the league. The Padres have scored 444 runs this season, which is 26th in the league.
San Diego’s pitching has been a little better than their offense. Opponents have a .258 batting average against the Padres, which is 24th in the league. Their 4.44 ERA is 21st, while their 1.36 WHIP is 22nd in the league.
In his last start, Lockett gave up nine hits and five earned runs in five innings, leading to a 5-4 loss to the Chicago Cubs. They will need him to bounce back from the bad start and give them some quality innings on Saturday.
- 1-11 in their last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- 5-16 in their last 21 home games.
- 8-21 in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- 6-2 in their last 8 overall.
- 8-2 in Nola’s last 10 starts.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The Padres have struggled at home this season, especially against teams with losing records. The Phillies have been great against teams with losing records and in Nola’s last 10 starts.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies -200
Full-Game Total Pick
This game might go over early on as Walker Lockett will be overmatched against the Phillies’ bats. he’s allowed nine runs in two starts in just 8.2 innings. Even if Nola allows 2-3 runs, Lockett will go over himself.
Prediction: Over 7.5
Full-Game Prop Bet
The Phillies have struggled scoring runs in the first five innings of their last three games, averaging 0.33 runs in the first five innings of their last three games. Even though Lockett is giving up 3.6 runs in his last three games, it will be hard for the Phillies to go over 4.5 runs in the first five innings of this game.
Prediction: Phillies Total Runs Under 4.5
First Five Innings Side Pick
The Phillies should be able to take advantage of going up against Lockett, who has made it to the fifth inning in just one of his last three starts.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies -215
First Five Innings Total Bet
The Phillies average 2.42 runs in the first five innings this season. They should be able to top their season average going up against Lockett, who is giving up 3.6 runs in the first five innings this season.
Prediction: Over 4
First Five Innings Prop Prediction
Lockett has been unable to make it past the third inning in two of his last three starts because he has been rocked by opponents. Expect the Phillies to take advantage and get to him early.
Prediction: Team to Score First Phillies -200