Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Where: Great American Ball Park
When: Tuesday, August 20, 2019, 7:10 pm ET
We have the National League to consider on Tuesday night when the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds meet for game two of a scheduled three-game series. This preview was published prior to the start of Monday night MLB contests and all opinions are based on the stats from Sunday MLB action.
San Diego is fourth in the National League West and right-hander Cal Quantrill is the Padres probable starter against Cincinnati. The Reds are fourth in the National League Central and righty Sonny Gray is the probable starter Tuesday night against San Diego.
Padres Series Win Over Phillies
The San Diego Padres have a tough hill to climb if they want to reach the postseason, and winning six of their last 10 is a decent start but the Padres are down by 22.5 games to the Los Angeles Dodgers but are only 7.5 games back in the National League Wild Card race. San Diego enters this series riding a two-game winning streak thanks to a road series win this weekend against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Padres have been outscored this season by 38 runs and are 29-32 away from Petco Park this season.
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) August 18, 2019
Infielder Fernando Tatis Jr has been ruled out for the rest of the 2019 season and the rookie with a .379 OBP along with 22 bombs, 53 RBI and 16 stolen bases will be missed by the Padres.
Quantrill (6-3, 3.23) has a 1.12 WHIP and his 4.49 xFIP suggests maybe some regression could be headed the rookie right-hander’s way at some point this season. Quantrill has allowed five earned runs over his previous 28.1 innings pitched and strikes out 7.29 per nine innings pitched with 2.27 walks and 1.08 home runs allowed this season per nine innings pitched.
Cincinnati has scored 23 runs over the last five games and averaged 4.67 runs per game with 100 bombs at Great American Ball Park and has crushed 141 bombs this season against right-handed pitching.
Votto Hits the Ten Day IL
The Reds are another MLB team with work to do if they want to make the playoffs. Cincinnati is 7.5 games behind the St Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs in the National League standings and 7.5 games behind the pack in the race for one of two National League Wild Cards. The Reds aren’t helping their cause very much losing six of their last 10 games and enter their series with San Diego hoping to end a one-game losing streak. Cincinnati has outscored its opponents by 22 runs and boasts a 35-30 record at Great American Ball Park this season.
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) August 18, 2019
The Reds have injury concerns with the most significant being 1B Joey Votto being placed on the IL with a back injury and will miss this series and then some. Votto has a .352 OBP with 12 bombs and 39 RBI over 424 at-bats this season.
Gray (8-6, 2.96) has a 1.12 WHIP and his 3.61 xFIP suggests maybe the veteran right-hander will see some regression at some point this season. Gray has allowed five earned runs over the last 29.1 innings pitched and hasn’t allowed an earned run over the past 18 innings pitched. Gray strikes out 10.45 per nine innings pitched while walking 3.39 with 0.88 bombs allowed this season per nine innings.
San Diego has scored 24 runs over their previous five games and averaged 4.88 runs per game with 94 bombs per nine innings pitched and has clubbed 142 home runs against right-handed pitching this season.
- Reds are 6-0 in Gray’s last 6 home starts.
- Reds are 13-3 in Gray’s last 16 starts.
- Reds are 13-3 in Gray’s last 16 starts on grass.
- Reds are 4-1 in Gray’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 Tuesday games.
- Padres are 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Neither offense is what we consider “offensive-minded” and even if they were, both teams are going to have their work cut out for them scoring runs off of Quantrill and Gray Tuesday night.
That series win “high” the Padres should be experiencing will likely be long gone by Tuesday when they face Gray and their high strikeout rate against a pitcher who’s thrown 18 scoreless innings against the likes of St Louis, Chicago, and Atlanta is highly concerning.
Quantrill has been good all season long but his 3.60 road ERA and a 2-2 record over 30 road innings pitched might not be good enough to best Gray and the Reds Tuesday night.
I’m planning on playing the Reds to beat the Padres Tuesday night.
Full-Game Total Pick
Vegas hasn’t posted a total yet but we have two starting pitchers with nearly elite 1.12 WHIP up against a Padres side with a 26.2 percent strikeout rate and the Reds 23.6 percent strikeout rate against righties this season.
Adding up the offensive splits leaves us at just under 10 runs and Quantrill and Gray make that number very difficult to reach on Tuesday night.
This game also features two top 15 bullpens and I suspect they won’t be getting beat up by either offense.
I saw the following trend I think might be helpful Tuesday;
- Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
I’m leaning heavily on playing UNDER on Tuesday night.