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Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers,
8-21-2018 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#907 Cincinnati
Reds 9
#908 Milwaukee
Brewers -200

Tuesday, August 21, 2018 at 8:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Cincinnati Reds
S. ROMANO

55 - 70

7
W's
10
L's
5.34
ERA
1.45
WHIP

Milwaukee Brewers
J. GUERRA

70 - 57

6
W's
8
L's
3.73
ERA
1.33
WHIP

Cincinnati Reds (55-69) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (69-57)

Where and when:  Miller Park, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Tuesday, 8:10 pm EST

The Cincinnati Reds will travel to Miller Park in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, to take on the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday night beginning at 8:10 pm EST in what will be game 2 of a 3-game set.  The Reds are in last place within the NL Central division while the Brewers occupy 2nd place within the division while threatening the Cubs for the top spot.  In their last outing, the Brewers would salvage a 3-game road set versus the red-hot St. Louis Cardinals by picking up the all-important 2-1 victory on 8-19-2018.  The Brewers would cash in on the money line (-107) while the under was the play with total runs being set at 8 for the game.  Jhoulys Chacin (13-4) would pick up yet another victory in what has been an outstanding season as he would last 6 solid innings while allowing only 4 this with an ERA of 3.58 for the game while Jon Gant (5-5) would suffer the loss for the Cards as he would pitch 4.1 innings while allowing 2 runs on 6 hits with a 3.76 ERA.  Mike Moustakas would be the difference for the Brewers as he would go 1-4 with 2 RBIs while Matt Carpenter and Marcell Ozuna would have 2 of the 5 hits for St. Louis in the loss.  The win was only the 2nd in 6 outings for the Brewers.

The Reds would sweep the San Francisco Giants in a 3-game home set by picking up the 11-4 victory in the finale on 8-19-2018 to where the Reds would cash out on the money line (-105) while the over was the play with total runs being set at 8.5 for the game.  Andrew Suarez (4-9) would get the loss as he would pitch 2.2 innings while allowing 7 runs on 7 hits and a homer with a 4.68 ERA for the game while Luis Castillo (7-10) would pick up the win for the Reds as he would go 6.2 innings while allowing 3 runs on 6 hits with 9 k’s with an ERA of 4.86.  Curt Casali would go 3-4 with 3 RBI’s in the win while Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza would combine for 5 hits along with 5 RBI’s.  Chase d’Armoud, Hunter Pence, and Gorkys Hernandez would each have an RBI for the Giants in the loss.  The win was the 3rd straight for the last place Reds, overall.

Romano Looks for 2nd Win in 3 Outings

Sal Romano (7-10) will make his way to the mound after an outing where he would only go 1.2 innings while allowing 6 runs on 7 hits in an 8-1 shellacking at the hands of the Cleveland Indians at Miller Park on 8-14-2018.  In his last 3 games, he would be charged with 11 earned runs on 15 hits over 13.2 innings while the team is 3-2 in his last 5 mound appearances.  The under has been the play in 6 of his last 8 outings while his ERA is currently 7.62 with 9 k’s in his last 3 games.

Jesus Aguilar (1-3), Ryan Braun (.462 BA on 13 AB), Keon Broxton (2-3), Manny Pina (3-6), and Eric Thames (.222 BA on 9 AB) have all had success against Romano in the past.  Nonetheless, Orlando Arcia (.143 BA on 7 AB), Lorenzo Cain (0-2), Mike Moustakas (0-4), Hernan Perez (0-2), Christian Yelich (0-4) and Travis Shaw (.143 BA on 7 AB) have struggled to figure out the right-hander over their careers.

Pitcher for Brewers Not Determined

The pitching staff for the Brewers have given up a total of 21 runs during their 4-game skid (including their last 2-1 win).  However, in their last 6 home games, they have given up 35 total runs.  In other words, the Brewers are really feeling the pinch of not having enough quality pitchers to spread around during a critical stretch of the season.  With that being said, the offense could certainly give some life to the pitchers for the Reds in that they are only averaging 2.5 runs during their skid.  This matchup will be an interesting one for the Brewers in that they are right in the thick of things as it relates to their competition with the Cubs for the top spot in the division and simply cannot afford to fall behind.  Let us see how they respond to the pressure, shall we?

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

The Brewers have dominated this series in 2018 in winning 7 of the last 10 matchups while also picking up a series win earlier in the season in a 3-game set at Miller Park on 4-17-2018.  It is for this reason that I feel as if the Brewers will focus in even more in this matchup to get the much-needed win.  Again, Milwaukee simply cannot afford to move further behind the Cubs in the division, so, a few wins in this contest will certainly do much to bolster their chances of gaining the top spot.  Besides, with the way the Cbus are playing, anything is possible.

Prediction: Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

The over has been the play in 3 straight games amongst these two squads while being the result in 5 of the last 8 games overall.  In addition to this, the over has been the play in 6 of 10 for the Reds while being the result in 7 of the last 10 games for the Brewers.  As if that was not enough, the over has been the play also in 6 of the last 8 outings on the mound for Romano.  With that being said, I will back the over in this contest as I feel strongly that these trends will continue given the present circumstance.  Also, with the success the Brew Crew lineup has had against Romano, forget about it!

Prediction: Pick: Over

Full-Game Prop Bet
Rating:

After learning of Junior Guerra (6-8) pulling the start for this contest, I have begun to rethink this game.  While I first thought that the Brewers would run away with this matchup, I now feel as if there will be scoring opportunities available to the Reds that will keep them hanging around throughout this game.  Guerra is charged with 16 earned over 21.2 innings while giving up 7 homers in his last 6 games.  Of course, the Brewers may have a huge battle on their hands, I continue to believe that they can somehow pull out what will be a tough and competitive contest on Tuesday night.

Prediction: Pick: Cincinnati Reds +1.5

First Five Innings Side Pick
Rating:

Sal Romano has had decent success against this lineup for the Brewers.  On the other hand, the Reds lineup has also had experience versus Guerra in the past.  With that being said, I would expect the Reds to jump out on the Brewers early in this matchup.  And while the Brewers will also put themselves in a position to score early, the Reds will indeed hold a slim advantage over the home team due to Guerra’s inconsistencies.

Prediction: Pick: Cincinnati Reds +0.5

First Five Innings Total Bet
Rating:

As stated, I will expect both teams to score early, however, I will back the under after 5 innings as I really see both pitchers getting sharper as the game wears on.  With that being said, 4.5 runs after 5 seems a bit much in a game that I would expect both Guerra and Romano to exert themselves even more as the innings progress.

Prediction: Pick: Under 4.5

First Five Innings Prop Prediction
Rating:

Regardless, I will back the Brewers in this contest on Tuesday night as they may be at a bit of a disadvantage with Guerra on the mound, however, they certainly have the incentive to get the win in this instance.  Of course, they have had some difficulties facing this Reds team in the past, however, this is the time of year that should bring out the best in any player.  With that being said, I will ride with Milwaukee to pull out a slim victory.

Prediction: Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -180

Falepa Emme

A true analyst for a variety of sports, Falepa Emme has been a sports enthusiast for decades. His ability to read, learn, write, and constantly think sports will offer a unique perspective to NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, NHL, along with MLB contests. Falepa's passion for analytics in each of these areas will certainly benefit the reader in obtaining more insight into upcoming match-ups.

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