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On Wednesday, the Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres will wrap up their three-game series in Ohio. First pitch is set for 12:35 P.M ET and will feature a pitching matchup between Matt Strahm (SD) and Luis Castillo (CIN).
Padres Playing Good Ball
Although this year isn’t all about wins and losses, the San Diego Padres are playing good ball and putting together a string of W’s. They’ve won three of their last four games, all on the road, and have done so through solid pitching performances. In their last four games, the pitching staff has allowed just 10 runs total (or 2.5 runs/game) and over the course of the last week, they’ve posted a 3.74 team ERA.
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) August 20, 2019
On Wednesday, the Padres will turn to Matt Strahm in hopes of keeping the good times rolling. Strahm has been pitching out of the bullpen since early July but on the season, he’s made 15 starts. That said, he’s been electric out of the pen, posting a 2.57 ERA in August (all relief appearances). As a reliever, he’s allowed opposing hitters to post a .669 OPS. As a starter, he’s allowed them to post a .848 OPS.
As for the offense, they suffered a tough loss recently; Fernando Tatis Jr., their best young position player, will miss the remainder of the season with an injury. Tatis Jr. had 22 home runs this year along with a .317 batting average.
Reds in the Middle of a Tough Stretch
Since the start of the second half, the Cincinnati Reds have gone through a lot of ups and downs. They’ve had good stretches, winning three in a row twice, but there’s also been some rough patches. Recently, they’ve been experiencing the latter, losing seven of their last 10 games.
That said, they’re coming off a win in Game 2 over San Diego. The Reds escaped with a 3-2 win over the Padres behind a big hit from one of their newest additions, Freddie Galvis, who hit a go-ahead two-run homer in the sixth inning. Galvis, who played every game for San Diego last year, was signed by the Reds after getting released by Toronto, and since coming over, he’s been on fire. In eight games, Galvis is hitting .413 with three home runs. On the season Galvis has 21 home runs and the only reason he was let go by Toronto was that they’re dedicated to their young infielders.
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) August 21, 2019
As for their pitching staff, they’ve been lucky enough to have two starters perform extremely well all season, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray. Castillo, the team’s ace, will start on Wednesday for Cincinnati, his 26th start of the year. In his first 25 outings, he’s posted a 3.10 ERA and 11-5 record. In August, however, he’s having his worst month; in 18 innings, Castillo has a 6.50 ERA.
- 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- 4-1 in their last 5 games with Castillo starting on 4 days rest.
- 6-14 in their last 20 games during Game 3 of a series.
- 1-8 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- 3-6 in their last 9 games vs. CIN.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The Reds took Game 2 of this series and they’ll use that momentum to win the series in Game 3. They have their best starter on the hill, Luis Castillo, and the fact that they’re home is important as well. The Reds are 36-31 at home this year and Castillo has a 3.10 ERA in 25 starts. San Diego has trouble against righties, hitting just .239 against them this year, and without Tatis Jr., it’ll just get worse. Take the Reds with confidence in this one.
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds -140
Full-Game Total Pick
Simply put, when these two teams play, there are not many runs put up on the scoreboard. In their last six meetings, the over hasn’t come through once. While that tells me an over might be overdue, the pitching matchup tells me otherwise. Luis Castillo is known as a top-line starter in the league while Matt Strahm has a sub-3.00 ERA this month and appears to have his stuff in tip-top shape.
Prediction: Under 8