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This Thursday, there is a matchup between two National League teams. Specifically, the Chicago Cubs and the San Diego Padres will face off at about 3:40 PM. This is game four of a four-game series, which will take place at Petco Park.
Cubs Locked In Tie For NL Wild Card Spot
The Chicago Cubs are currently in the playoffs as they are holding onto the second NL Wild Card spot. However, the Cubs have the exact same record as the Brewers with a little bit less than a month left in the season. The main reason why the Cubs have been unable to wrap up a playoff spot has been their awful road record. Specifically, Chicago is 30-44 away from home which is the tent-worst record in the league. In addition, Chicago has lost five of its last six road games which has helped the Brewers climb back into the Wild Card race over the past week. Now, Chicago has a shot at maintaining or even extending its lead with a victory in this game.
The Cubs have lost five of their last six games and they have gone 15-15 in their last 30 games. Yesterday, they scored zero runs against the Padres and lost by a score of 4-0. Leading their attack was Kris Bryant who had one of the team’s only three hits. This loss was surprising for the Cubs considering their solid record against the NL West division. Specifically, the Cubs are 17-14 in games against that division this season.
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) September 11, 2019
Pitching for the Cubs in this game will be Yu Darvish, who has gone 5-6 with a 4.12 ERA in 28 starts on the year, including a 3-3 record with a 3.30 ERA in 15 road starts. Righties are hitting .178 off of him this year, while lefties are hitting .248. However, he has been great since the All-Star Break with a 3-2 record along with a 2.69 ERA.
The Cubs have been above average on offense so far as they come into this game ranked 13th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.92 runs per game, while also ranking 6th in the league with 1.57 home runs per game. On the mound, they have been great so far as they come in ranked 6th in the league in ERA at 4.04. In addition, the bullpen for the Cubs ranks 7th in the league with a 4.02 ERA.
Padres Look To Play Spoiler
The San Diego Padres are sitting well out of a playoff spot at this point in the season which means that they have nothing to truly gain by winning any of the remaining regular season games. However, other teams in their spot have tried in the past with the sole purpose of spoiling other teams’ hopes of getting into the playoffs. The Padres have the opportunity to accomplish this feat by taking care of business against the Cubs on Thursday. Chicago is in the middle of a seriously close NL Wild Card race and San Diego can potentially push Chicago out of its playoff spot with a victory on Thursday. However, most below-average teams do not care enough to actively try ruining the hopes of other teams. Whether the Padres will try to do so or not remains to be seen.
The Padres have won four of their last six games and they have gone 14-16 in their last 30 games. Yesterday, the Padres scored four runs and defeated the Cubs at home. Leading their offense was Manuel Margot who had a solo home run in the fifth inning. This win was a bit surprising for the Padres as the team has been below average at home throughout the season. Specifically, the Padres are 35-39 at Petco Park.
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) September 11, 2019
Pitching for the Padres in this game will be Dinelson Lamet and he has gone 2-4 with a 3.95 ERA in 11 starts this season, including an 0-2 record with 4.85 ERA in five starts at home. Righties are hitting .198 off of him this year, while lefties are hitting .255. He has also been solid since the All-Star Break as he has a 3.81 ERA.
The Padres have been below average on offense so far as they come into this game ranked 25th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.31 runs per game, while also recording the second-fewest hits in the league with 8.07 hits per game. On the mound, they have been average as they come into this game ranked 16th in the league in ERA at 4.55. Meanwhile, the bullpen for the Padres ranks 16th in the league with a 4.51 ERA.
- Padres are 0-9 in Lamet’s last 9 home starts.
- Padres are 0-4 in Lamet’s last 4 Thursday starts.
- Cubs are 57-23 in their last 81 Thursday games.
- Cubs are 35-16 in their last 52 during game 4 of a series.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Even though the Padres are at home for this game, I think that the Cubs have a significant pitching advantage in this game and I expect the Cubs to get the victory in this game. Specifically, Darvish has been great since the All-Star Break with a 2.69 ERA while Lamet has a 4.85 ERA at home so I can see the Cubs driving in a couple more runs against the Padres in this game. Plus, this game simply means more to the Cubs as they are in the midst of a serious NL Wild Card battle while the Padres have nothing to play for. Give me the road team as a result.
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Full-Game Total Pick
Simply put, I like both pitchers in this game and think this total is too high. Darvish has been great over the past month as he has a 2.49 ERA in the last 30 days so I expect him to pitch well once again on Thursday. Plus, Lamet has a 2.45 ERA over the last 15 days so he is also in very solid form for this game. I expect this game to finish somewhere in the realm of 4-2 so I will lean to the under.
Prediction: Under 8