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Diamondbacks vs. Padres,
9-19-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#911 Arizona
Diamondbacks
#912 San Diego
Padres

Tuesday, September 19, 2017 at 10:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Arizona Diamondbacks (87-64) at San Diego Padres (67-83)

When and Where: Tuesday, September 19 at 10:10 p.m. ET Petco Park in San Diego, CA

Line: Arizona -160

Total: 8.5

Arizona has won four of its last six games, but dropped its past two. San Diego has won two straight games after losing five straight. Arizona will start Zack Godley, while Travis Wood gets the nod for San Diego.

Maintaining the Wild Card spot

With only a few weeks left in the season, Arizona should be a playoff team. But there’s still time for teams to catch up to the Diamondbacks, so now is not the time to let up. The Diamondbacks dropped a tough one in the series opener against the rival Padres. Arizona’s offense has been solid this year, ranking ninth in baseball in runs scored. The pitching has been even better as only two teams have a better team ERA than Arizona.

Godley has been great for Arizona. He’s 8-7 with a 3.00 ERA in 23 starts. Godley’s fresh off a tremendous start where he allowed zero earned runs over eight innings against the Rockies. Over his last three starts, Godley has allowed exactly three earned runs. Look for him to continue that success against an inferior Padre offense.

Figuring Things Out

Travis Wood has been awful lately. He allowed nine earned runs in only 2.1 innings against the Twins in his most recent start. His second most recent start wasn’t much better as he allowed seven earned runs in two innings against the Cardinals. Wood has come out of the bullpen for most of the season between the Royals and Padres, but he’s 2-3 with a 6.70 overall. He’ll make his 13 starts Tuesday night. Wood has had some solid moments, especially immediately after joining the Padres, but it’s discouraging how he’s pitched lately.

The Padres offense ranks 30 in runs scored and batting average. Despite San Diego’s struggles all season, the Padres have managed more wins than four National League teams. The Padres have used excellent pitching over their last two games to secure wins. That’s a tall task against this Diamondback offense.

Trends:

  • Diamondbacks are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Diamondbacks are 9-2 in their last 11 road games.
  • Diamondbacks are 5-0 in Godley’s last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Diamondbacks are 4-1 in Godley’s last 5 starts vs. National League West.
  • Padres are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Padres are 2-5 in their last 7 overall.
  • Padres are 2-5 in their last 7 games on grass.
  • Padres are 4-11 in their last 15 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Padres are 3-9 in their last 12 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

The Padres send out a pitcher in Wood who has struggled deeply over his past two starts, while Godley might be pitching his best ball of the season. Mix in the power of Arizona’s offense and its need to win games to secure a playoff spot, and it feels like a win for the Diamondbacks.

Pick: Arizona -160

Joseph Phelan

Joe graduated from St. Bonaventure University in Western New York. He works as a news reporter for a paper in Saratoga Springs, NY. He's been watching sports since he could walk, his favorites being basketball and football.

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