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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 9-19-2020

Game Snapshot with Current Line

#925 Los Angeles
Dodgers -235
#926 Colorado
Rockies 235

Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 8:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

The Colorado Rockies will host the Los Angeles Dodgers for the third game of their four-game series here. Colorado desperately needs to win to keep their fading playoff chances alive, while the Dodgers are looking to wrap up the NL West. Colorado will start Chi Chi Gonzalez, while ace Clayton Kershaw takes the mound for Los Angeles.

Dodgers Cruising

The Los Angeles Dodgers were widely expected to be the best team in baseball following their offseason acquisition of Mookie Betts, and they've certainly looked the part so far. They've easily got the best record in the majors at 36-15 entering Friday, and are the odds-on favorite to win the World Series. They haven't just been winning games they've been dominating them, as evidenced by their +108 run differential. As such, playing them on the run line often makes sense if you're looking to back the Dodgers. As they look to wrap up the division, they'll have ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound here.

Kershaw has looked like his Cy Young-winning self this year, entering with a 2.28 ERA. Not surprisingly, the Dodgers are 7-2 in his starts this year. Not just that, but all seven of those wins came by multiple runs. Even if Kershaw isn't his sharpest here it might not matter, as the Dodgers rank second in the league with a bullpen ERA of just 2.73. The offense has been fantastic, and they put up nine runs in the first game of this series on Thursday. They lead the league in home runs for a reason, and it's virtually impossible to slow down a lineup that features Betts, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Max Muncy, and A.J. Pollock. All of those guys have at least ten home runs.

Rockies Struggling

I was high on this Colorado Rockies team coming into the year, since I thought their abysmal 2019 record wasn't representative of the talent they had on the roster. After their 11-3 start to the year, I was feeling pretty good. Things sure did go south in a hurry, as they proceeded to go 11-24 in their next 35 games. They're now hanging on by a thread to their playoff hopes, as ESPN gave them around a seven percent chance of making the postseason as of Friday. For this pivotal game, they'll go with Chi Chi Gonzalez on the mound.

Unfortunately, he's not the most inspiring option. After not appearing in the big leagues since 2016 Gonzalez made 12 starts with Colorado last year, compiling a 5.29 ERA. He's been even worse this time around, with an 8.68 ERA through four appearances. In his most recent outing against the Padres, he gave up four earned runs while only getting one out. Assuming Gonzalez doesn't go deep into this game that's a major problem, as Colorado ranks 29th in the league in bullpen ERA. They haven't even had their usual home-field advantage, as they've actually been worse at Coors Field than on the road this year. The offense has fallen off dramatically, and they haven't topped three runs in any of their past five games.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

The Dodgers make a lot of sense on the run line here. They have the best run differential in baseball, and are always a good bet to win by multiple runs. Colorado has been ice cold over the past month and a half, while the Dodgers have been nearly unbeatable. Los Angeles is still looking to wrap up the division, so it's not like they have nothing to play for. Kershaw has looked like his old dominant self this season, entering with a 2.28 ERA. Kershaw vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez is such a mismatch on the mound that it's laughable.

Prediction: Dodgers Run Line

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Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

I am also playing the over here. The Dodgers have the best offense in baseball, and now they're facing a guy in Gonzalez who gave up four earned runs while only recording one out his last time out. The Rockies also have arguably the worst bullpen in the league, so I expect Los Angeles to be scoring all game long. Colorado still has a ton of talent on offense themselves, and Kershaw has been a bit shaky recently by giving up three earned runs in each of his last two starts. Kershaw also struggled mightily against the Rockies last year, so I think both sides score plenty.

Prediction: Over

Alex Porter , "The Stash"

Alex Porter is one of the premier minds in basketball and football handicapping. With a degree in statistics, Alex uses advanced metrics as well as copious amounts of film study to make his picks. Since starting his betting career at the age of 18, the recent college graduate has never had a losing football season. We are very glad to have Alex as a part of our team here at StatSalt.

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