The Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres will wrap up their series here on Sunday afternoon. We'll have two young pitchers who have both been looking recently on the mound, as Justin Dunn takes the hill for Seattle while Dinelson Lamet gets the start for San Diego.
Padres Breaking OutThe San Diego Padres have been arguably the best story in baseball this season. Most people expected them to still be another year away with their young core, but they've looked like legit title contenders so far. They've locked in their postseason berth, and could still catch the Dodgers for first place in the NL West. There's an energy and excitement around this team we haven't seen in many years. The offense has been outstanding as they've scored 292 runs this season, which has them ranked third in the league. It hasn't only been the offense though, as they've been getting great starting pitching, including from guys like Dinelson Lamet, who gets the ball here.
Dinelson Lamet, Filthy Sliders... 😷— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 15, 2020
8th and 9th Ks. pic.twitter.com/L30FZHOqeF
Always high on potential, Lamet has been enjoying a breakout season. In his third big league season, he's been dominant, entering this one with a 2.12 ERA. In his last two starts, he's given up only one run across 14 and 2/3 innings, and those were against tough Dodgers and Rockies lineups. He had 22 strikeouts across those two starts and is absolutely dealing. As I mentioned above, he's likely to get quite a bit of help from his offense. Fernando Tatis Jr. looks like the potential next face of the league at only 21, and guys like Manny Machado, Wil Myers, Jake Cronenworth, and Eric Hosmer are all mashing as well.
Mariners Up And DownThings haven't been quite as smooth for the Seattle Mariners. They got off to a decent start but then collapsed, and enter this one all but eliminated from the playoffs. They'd lost four straight games entering Saturday, and are just playing to build some momentum heading into next year at this point. While the season has been a disappointment overall there have been some bright spots, including the recent emergence of young pitcher Justin Dunn, who will start here. After a very shaky start to the season, Dunn was able to string together a few great starts in a row.
Unfortunately, he regressed in his most recent outing and melted down, getting pulled after just two innings after surrendering five walks. Control has been a major issue for him, and he's walked at least four batters in each of his last three starts. Giving up free passes isn't something he can afford to do against this potent Padres lineup. And he might not be able to count on much run support, as the Mariners have mustered just eight total runs over their past four games. If Dunn has to get pulled early again that could be very bad news, as Seattle currently ranks 28th in the league in bullpen ERA at 6.23.
- 0-4 in their last 4 overall
- 7-20 in their last 27 vs. National League West
- 5-0 in their last 5 Sunday games
- 22-7 in their last 29 overall
- 13-4 in their last 17 interleague games
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The Padres make a ton of sense on the run line. They have arguably the best lineup in the league, and Justin Dunn is coming off a start where he lasted only two innings. Dinelson Lamet on the other hand has been fantastic, giving up only one run in his last 14 and 2/3 innings while striking out 22. The Mariners rank 28th in bullpen ERA this year, so they won't have much luck after Dunn departs the game. The Padres have been absolutely on fire over the past month, and there's no reason to fade them here.
Prediction: Padres Run Line
Full-Game Total Pick
I am also playing the under in this spot, since I don't see the Mariners scoring much at all. They'd only put up eight total runs in their last four games entering Saturday, and now they're going up against an emerging ace like Lamet. Dunn struggled with his control in his most recent start, but he had been lights out right before that, so I think he'll be able to at least hold his own against this tough Padres offense. Oddsmakers appear to have overcompensated for San Diego's hitting surge, as the under is now 5-2-1 in their last eight games.