Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins
Where and when: Marlins Park, Miami, Florida, Friday, 7:10 pm EST
Game one of a four game set versus the Miami Marlins and the Cincinnati Reds will take place at Marlins Park in Miami, Florida, beginning on Friday night at 7:10 pm EST. Both teams are in last place in their respective divisions while each having lost four of their last six games overall. The Marlins recently tied a two-game home set versus the Washington Nationals as they dropped game two of the set on September 18th by a 4-2 score as the Nationals would score twice in the second inning while tacking on runs in the fourth and sixth innings to seal the win. Steven Strasburg (9-7) picked up the victory in going six innings while giving up two earned runs on five hits in the win while Sandy Alcantara (2-1) pitched four innings and allowing three earned runs on six hits in the loss for the Marlins.
Trea Turner and Adam Eaton both had two hits apiece along with an RBI for the Nationals. The Reds, on the other hand, lost a three-game road set to the Milwaukee Brewers as they dropped the finale on Wednesday night by a 7-0 score as Manny Pina went one for four with three RBI’s for the brewers while Jesus Aguilar had four RBI’s in the win while going two for four at the plate. Gio Gonzales (9-11) picked up the victory at the mound going six innings while giving up just two runs in the game while Matt Harvey (7-9) suffered the loss in lasting 5.1 innings while allowing seven earned on seven hits. This will only be the second series between these two teams as the Marlins won a three-game set at Great American Ball Park on May 6, 2018.
Castillo seeks third straight victory
Luis Castillo (10-12) is charged with only four earned runs in his last four starts for the Reds and will be looking for his fourth win in five starts. In his last appearance on the mound, the right-hander pitched 6.2 innings while giving up one run on four hits in a 2-1 road win versus the Chicago Cubs on September 16, 2018. This will be Castillo’s first outing of the year versus the Marlins as his last matchup would date to July 30, 2017, as he pitched eight innings while allowing one run on three hits in a 6-4 road win. Derek Dietrich (0-3) and Miguel Rojas (1-3) are the only hitters for the Marlins with experience facing Castillo.
Wei-Yin Chen seeks to avoid third straight loss
After winning two straight starts, Wei-Yin Chen (6-11) will come to the mound on Friday looking to avoid his third straight loss as he has allowed at least three earned runs to his opponents in his last two starts while he has not advanced past the fourth inning in either of those outings. In a contest versus the Phillies on September 14, 2018, he allowed five earned runs on seven hits in a 14-2 road loss while he was awful in his only start versus the Reds this year at Great American Ball Park as he pitched four innings while giving up four runs on five hits in a 4-1 loss on May 4th. Joey Votto (1-2) and Jose Peraza (2-3) has had the most experience facing Chen in the past while Curt Cassali is 0-5 versus the left-hander.
- MIA are 1-7 in their last 8 Fri. games
- MIA are 2-6 in their last 8 games on grass
- Under is 14-6-2 in MIA last 22 home game
- Under is 7-0-1 in CIN last 8 overall
- Under is 7-0-1 in CIN last 8 on grass
- CIN are 7-22 in their last 29 road games.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I will give the edge to the Cincinnati Reds in this matchup as Castillo has certainly been the better pitcher lately. And while the Reds have won just two of their last six games, the Marlins have only won two of their last six games as well, yet, are winless in Chen’s last two starts while the Reds are 2-0 in Castillo’s last two appearances on the mound. In all, backing the Reds in this instance would be the strongest play considering the recent history for both pitchers.
Prediction: Pick: Cincinnati Reds
Full-Game Total Pick
I will back the under in this matchup in that Castillo had a decent outing versus the Marlins in his last matchup while Chen has not had much experience facing the Reds lineup in his career. Combine this with the fact that the under has been the play in four of the last six games for the Marlins at home while also being the result in the last six games for the Reds, overall, I feel as if the under will certainly be a strong play in this contest.
Prediction: Pick: Under
Full-Game Prop Bet
With the success that Castillo has had versus the Marlins in recent outings along with the awful display of pitching that Chen has illustrated in his most recent starts, I will certainly back the road team in this matchup on Friday night. Besides, Chen has also struggled against the lineup for the Reds as well, thus allowing me to feel as though the Reds will certainly have a great night at the plate.
Prediction: Pick: Cincinnati Reds -1.5
First Five Innings Side Pick
I feel strongly that the Reds will get to the pitcher for the Marlins early in this matchup, thus allowing them to possess a comfortable lead after five innings. Again, Chen has been known to give up runs early in games in his most recent starts as he has had trouble advancing to later innings recently. With that being the case, I will take the Reds to get the early lead.
Prediction: Pick: Cincinnati Reds -0.5
First Five Innings Total Bet
While both teams have not been on fire lately from the mound, I will back the over of 4.5 runs leading up to the 6th inning. With Chen on the mound combined with the way that he continues to give up runs to opponents, even a team that is currently averaging 1.7 runs their last four outings such as the Reds will suddenly begin to look great from the plate. In all, backing the over in this instance is a strong play.
Prediction: Pick: Over 4.5
First Five Innings Prop Prediction
In all, the Reds will indeed have a solid night both at the mound and at the plate. Their 4-2 win on Thursday night will provide them with much-needed momentum versus this reeling Marlins team that is hurting at the mound as their staff has continued to place themselves in terrible positions on the mound, thus giving way to entirely too many runs being scored by their opponents.
Prediction: Pick: Cincinnati Reds -140