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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Where and when: SunTrust Park, Atlanta, Georgia, Friday, 7:35 pm EST
Game one of a four-game set between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves will take place at SunTrust Park in Atlanta, Georgia, on Friday night beginning at 7:35 pm EST. Atlanta is in first place within the NL East division and is currently comfortable in being eleven games ahead of the second place Phillies. Philadelphia won a three-home set versus the NY Mets as they picked up a 4-0 win in the finale on September 19th. Zack Eflin (11-7) pitched five innings while allowing just three hits in the win while Noah Syndergaard (12-4) lasted four innings while allowing three earned runs on four hits along with two homers in the loss. Odubel Herrera had two RBI’s in the win while Rhys Hoskins and Jose Bautista had an RBI each in the win. Atlanta, on the other hand, lost a three-game home set versus the St. Louis Cardinals as they avoided the sweep by picking up a 7-3 win in the finale of Wednesday night as Touki Toussaint (2-1) picked up the win as he went 5.2 innings while allowing two earned runs on five hits along with eight strikeouts in the win while Jack Flaherty (8-8) suffered the loss for the Cardinals in going 4.2 innings while allowing five earned on five hits, a homer, along with six k’s in the loss. Freddie Freeman went three of three at the plate with three RBI’s for the Braves in the finale win.
For the season, the Phillies have not played well at SunTrust Park as they dropped four of the last six while being outscored 36-22 in their six road games versus the Braves this season. Finally, these two teams have not met since a three-game set on May 23, 2018, to where the Phillies won the series two-games-to-one at Citizens Bank Park as the Braves scored three runs compared to eight for the Phillies during the set.
Pavetta desperately needs a win
Nick Pavetta (7-13) will come to the mound for the Phillies in game one on Friday looking to end a three-game losing streak to where he allowed 13 earned runs while reaching the fifth inning in only one of those outings, which happened to be a 6-4 home loss to the Miami Marlins to where he pitched five innings while allowing three earned runs on four hits, a homer, along with eight strikeouts. Pavetta’s outings versus the Braves have been met with mixed results as he recently pitched seven strong innings while allowing just four hits in a 3-0 home win on May 21, 2018, while having a disastrous outing on April 28th as he pitched five innings while allowing four earned runs on six hits in a 4-1 home loss.
Furthermore, in his last start at SunTrust, he lasted five innings while allowing one earned run on five hits in a 5-1 win on April 17, 2028. Dansby Swanson is four of twelve versus Pavetta while Nick Markakis (.267 on 15 AB), Ender Inciarte (.471 on 17 AB), Freddie Freeman (.133 on 15 AB), along with Ozzie Albies (.100 on 10 AB) have had considerable amounts of experience facing Pavetta in the past.
Teheran seeks to end streak of losses and no decisions
Julio Teheran (9-8) has not won a game in nearly a month since he pitched seven innings while allowing one earned run on two hits in a 2-1 road win versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. Since then, he started four times with the result being three no-decisions along with a loss. In his last outing, he lasted only four innings while giving up two earned runs on three hits, six walks, and seven strikeouts in a 7-1 home loss to the Nationals on September 15, 2018. Nonetheless, in Teheran’s last two starts at SunTrust Park versus the Phillies, he pitched a combined 11.2 innings while allowing five earned runs on nine hits and two homers in picking up a win along with a no-decision.
Most importanly, both games were wins for the Braves. The Phillies have tons of experience versus the right-hander as Justin Bour (.389 on 18 AB), Asdrubel Cabrera (.281 on 32 AB), Maikel Franco (.303 on 33 AB), Odubel Herrera (.250 on 32 AB), Rhys Hoskins (.500 on 10 AB), Wilson Ramos (.364 on 11 AB), and J.P. Crawford (.375 on 8 AB) have the most success facing Teheran in the past while Jose Bautista (.091 on 11 AB), Cesar Hernandez (.172 on 29 AB), and Nick Williams (.154 on 13 AB) have all struggled versus Teheran in their careers.
- Under is 20-6-1 in Teheran’s last 27 home starts
- Under is 10-4 in Teheran’s last 14 on grass
- Under is 10-4 in Teheran’s last 14 starts overall
- PHI is 7-16 in their last 23 road games
- Under is 6-2 in Pivetta’s last 8 on grass.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Regardless of Pavettta losing three straight games while surrendering multiple runs to his opponents during this time, I will continue to back the Phillies in this game in that they have owned Teheran in the past. Combined with the fact that the Phillies must continue to pick up quality wins since they continue to be in an open battle with Washington for second place in the division, this should provide more than enough incentive in which to play well tomorrow night at SunTrust.
Prediction: Pick: Philadelphia Phillies
Full-Game Total Pick
I will side with the over in this matchup in that both pitchers have had terrible outings recently while also having an awful history versus the opposing lineup in past meetings. Also, with the over being the call in four of the last six games at SunTrust Park amongst these two teams, I expect this trend to continue as both lineups have consistently tagged both Pavetta and Teheran in the past. In all, the over will certainly be a strong play in this matchup simply because of both lineup’s familiarity with the opposing pitcher, overall.
Prediction: Pick: Over
Full-Game Prop Bet
I happen to believe that the Phillies will keep this game close. Pavetta has had some regrettable outings versus this Braves lineup, however, he has done well recently at SunTrust Park. With that being said, I will expect the road team to play well both at the mound and plate with a shaky Teheran making an appearance on Friday night. In fact, the Phillies may even win outright in this contest, altogether.
Prediction: Pick: Philadelphia Phillies +1.5
First Five Innings Side Pick
Again, expect the Phiilies to understand the importance of winning this matchup as they are certainly needing to create some space from the surging Nationals in the divisional race. With that being said, Pavetta will certainly need to come to the mound with his best performance. In all, I look for him to gain some confidence at the mound in this matchup as the Braves, despite scoring three runs in the opener, have slowed down a bit on offense lately.
Prediction: Pick: Philadelphia Phillies +0.5
First Five Innings Total Bet
I will back the over after five innings in this matchup as Teheran has been much to shaky in the past. Of course, Pavetta has had some awful outings as well, however, I happen to believe that he will show and prove in this contest. Nonetheless, since both have been susceptible to giving up runs recently, I will play it safe and pull for the over leading up to the 6th.
Prediction: Pick: Over 4.5
First Five Innings Prop Prediction
Atlanta has seemingly recovered from their four game skid by winning two straight games. And with their 8-3 victory on Thurday night in the opener of this series, they truly hold the momentum heading into this contest. However, the Phillies have won two of their last three outings and four of their last seven, overall, and with Pavetta facing Teheran, the road team has a bit of an advantage on Friday night.
Prediction: Pick: Philadelphia Phillies +105