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Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets
NBA: Monday, February 11, 2019, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas, 8:00 PM ET
The Southwest Division showdown from Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, will see the Dallas Mavericks going against the Houston Rockets for the third time this season. The Mavericks lead the series, beating the Rockets twice as underdogs. Dallas is currently the No. 11 seed in the West four games behind the 8th-placed Clippers, while Houston is the No. 5 seed 2.5 games ahead of the 9th-placed Kings.
The Mavs seek for another upset
The Dallas Mavericks (26-29; 34-20-1 ATS) are coming off a 102-101 home victory over the Portland Trail Blazers last night to record their third win in the last four outings. Luka Doncic had another big night, scoring 13 points in the final period to finish the game with 28 points, nine rebounds, and six assists. The Mavericks are 6-4 straight up and 8-1-1 ATS in their last ten games overall, while they are 3-5 straight up and 6-2 ATS in their previous eight outings away from home.
Luka Doncic is enjoying a wonderful rookie season, averaging 20.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game while making 43.2% of his field goals. Tim Hardaway Jr. is tallying 16.0 points per contest since he arrived from New York, while Dwight Powell is posting 8.7 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. The Mavericks are scoring 109.2 points per 100 possessions (19th in the league) on 45.0% shooting from the field (21st) and 34.8% from beyond the arc (20th). They are allowing 108.8 points in a return (11th) on 45.5% shooting from the field (also 11th) and 33.9% from beyond the arc (3rd).
The Rockets look to get back on the winning path
The Houston Rockets (32-23; 25-29-1 ATS) are coming off a 117-112 defeat to the Oklahoma City Thunder this past Saturday to put an end to their three-game winning streak. The Rockets had a 22-point lead at halftime, but they scored just 42 points in the second half to allow the Thunder to overcome its deficit. James Harden put on another strong performance with 42 points extending his streak with 30+ points to 29 games. The Rockets are 6-3 straight up and 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall, while they are 3-3 straight up and 1-5 ATS in their last six outings at Toyota Center.
James Harden is leading the league in points per game (36.6), making 44.2% of his field goals and 37.5% of his 3-point attempts. Harden is also averaging 6.7 rebounds and 7.8 assists per contest. Eric Gordon is tallying 16.2 points per game, while Chris Paul is posting 15.6 points and 7.9 assists a night. Kenneth Faried is doing a great job in Clint Capela’s absence, averaging 16.2 points and 10.4 rebounds per contest. The Rockets are scoring 114.6 points per 100 possessions (3rd in the league) on 44.7% shooting from the field (26th) and 34.7% from beyond the arc (21st), allowing 112.5 points in a return (25th) on 47.5% from the field (26th) and 33.8% from downtown (2nd).
Notable Trends
Houston Rockets:
- 5-3 SU and ATS in the last eight home meetings with the Southwest Division
- 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS in the last six home meetings with Dallas
- Over is 7-5 in the last 12 games overall
Dallas Mavericks:
- 1-9 SU and 5-5 ATS on the back end of their last ten back-to-back sets
- 1-6 SU and 4-3 ATS in their last seven road meetings with the Southwest Division
- Under is 9-2-1 in the last 12 games overall
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The Mavericks are still in the mix for the playoff spot in the West, but they need to start winning in sequences, and I’m not sure they are capable of doing such a thing. On the other side, the Rockets continue to rely a lot on James Harden, and after two straight losses to the Mavs this season, I think it’s time for the first victory. The Rockets have been poor against the spread lately, especially on the home court, while the Mavericks are the best team in the league against the spread. Still, I’m backing the Rockets to cover on this one, hoping they are keen to get a payoff.
Prediction: Houston Rockets -9.5 (-110)
Full-Game Total Pick
The Mavericks have been a sure shot to take them in the under recently, while the Rockets have been pretty unpredictable. Houston is playing at a slow pace, recording just 97.8 possessions per 48 minutes (27th in the league). Dallas is averaging 99.5 possessions per 48 minutes (19th), and the Mavericks will need their best defense to stay close on this one, so I’m backing the under.
Prediction: Under 220.5 points (-110)
Full-Game Prop Bet
The Rockets have dropped two games in a row at Toyota Center, and their six previous home matchups were decided by five or fewer points. As I’m backing them to cover a 9.5-point spread, hoping they will finally get consistent, picking the winning margin could earn some nice wages. I don’t think we’ll see a 20+ blowout, so I’m taking the Rockets with a reasonable margin.
Prediction: Winning Margin: Houston Rockets by 11-15 points (+400)
Half-Time Side Pick
The Rockets were leading at halftime in their previous four outings, while the Mavericks were trailing in two of their last four games, leading against Charlotte and the hapless Cavaliers. In the first H2H duel in Houston, the Mavs were leading by 18 points at halftime, while Rockets had a 1-point lead in Dallas. I expect the Rockets to storm the front at home tonight and cover the spread at halftime.
Prediction: Houston Rockets -5.5 (-110)
