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Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 2-11-2019

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#567 Miami
Heat 212
#568 Denver
Nuggets -9

Monday, February 11, 2019 at 9:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Miami Heat

25 - 29

27-26
ATS
27-26
O/U
105
PPG
105
OPPG

Denver Nuggets

37 - 18

29-26
ATS
28-27
O/U
111
PPG
107
OPPG

Featured Video from Scott Reichel

For our Top Free Plays, check out today’s Deep-3:

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets

Where: Pepsi Center, Denver Colorado

When: Monday, February 11, 2019 9:00pm Eastern

We have the National Basketball Association as our focus when the Miami Heat travel to Denver for a non-conference game with the Denver Nuggets. Miami is clinging to a half-game lead over the Detroit Pistons for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference and Denver is 2.5 games behind Golden State for the top spot in the West and has a one-game lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder. This is an important game for both sides on Monday.

Miami Acquires Ryan Anderson

The Heat seem content with letting this season be all about the Dwyane Wade retirement tour, and less about competing for a title. The trade deadline moves they made weren’t about making the Heat better now. That doesn’t mean Miami isn’t competitive, because they are, they just seem to have other priorities right now. The Heat do seem excited about acquiring Ryan Anderson from Phoenix, so maybe he can help Miami stop blowing leads and maybe spread the floor a bit.

Miami isn’t currently listing any significant injuries for Monday night against Denver.

Denver won the first leg of this two-game series by a score of 103-99. Miami has a road record of 14 wins and 12 losses and are working on a one-game losing streak.

Josh Richardson leads Miami in scoring, averaging 17.4 points, 3.8 assists and 3.7 rebounds. Richardson is also dropping 2.4 triples per night and over his last five games is averaging 16.6 points, three rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.8 triples per game.

Over the last five games, Miami is scoring an average of 98.6 points, 11 offensive rebounds, 35.4 defensive rebounds and 23 assists per game over their last five games.

Jokic Having Monster Season for Denver

Denver has had quite a season, and of the playoffs were to begin today, the Nuggets would be the number two seed in the Western Conference. That’s amazing considering Will Barton has missed much of the season, not to mention Paul Millsap and Gary Harris spending considerable time out due to injury. Denver is returning home from an unsuccessful four-game road trip, with three consecutive losses to Detroit, Brooklyn and Philadelphia with their lone win coming against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Oklahoma City Thunder are closing the gap and are just one game away from wrestling away second place from the Nuggets, so a win over Miami would be just what the doctor ordered.

Millsap and Harris are both considered questionable for Monday night against Miami. That’s 26 points and nine rebounds plus outstanding defense that might be sitting on the pine on Monday night.

The Nuggets snuck past Miami in their last meeting. Denver has a home record of 23 wins and four losses and are working on a three-game losing streak.

Nikola Jokic leads the Nuggets in scoring (20.4), rebounds (10.5), assists (7.7) and steals (1.4) and over the past five games, Jokic is averaging 22.4 points, 11.2 rebounds, 8.6 assists and 1.6 steals per night.

Over their last five games, Denver is averaging 117.2 points, grabbing 11 rebounds, 29.8 defensive rebounds and 32.2 assists per game over the last five games.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

Denver is the better side and with Miami playing their third road game in six nights, and second game on consecutive nights, that the Heat might be a bit tired and not really up for this game. Especially at that altitude. Not to mention Jokic and the way he killed them in Miami earlier this season. I will roll with the Nuggets on Monday night.

Prediction: Denver

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

When I added everything together, I came away with 228.1 points. I wasn’t sure which way to go, and since Vegas hasn’t posted this game, I did a bit of poking around and found this trend I think is helpful;

  • Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Denver.

I do think the number 228 is a bit high, so I will play the under at 228 or higher on Monday.

Prediction: Under

Phil Naessens

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