Mississippi St vs. Arkansas, 01/10/17 - Prediction
Written by: Jason Green
Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-4, 6-5 ATS, 6-5 O/U) at Arkansas Razorbacks (12-3 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
NCAAB: Tuesday, January 10, 2017 at 9 p.m. ET
The Line: OFF
Mississippi State has won four of their last five games and after losing their SEC opener to Alabama they evened their conference record at 1-1 throttling LSU on the road in their last game. The Bulldogs have won their only road game of the season and while they are led by their defense, which is giving up an average of 66.6 ppg, they lit up LSU for 95 points in their last game.
Arkansas got off to a great start to the season with only one loss before SEC play began. Then they had a tough start to conference play losing two of their last three games with both losses coming against ranked teams. They were crushed in their last game losing to 6th ranked Kentucky on the road by 26 points. The Razorbacks have won nine of their 10 home games this season and they have covered the spread in their last four home games facing Mississippi State.
Pouring on the offense in the first half
In MSU’s last game they beat LSU 95-78 where they outscored the Tigers by 19 points in the first half. Overall, the Bulldogs were legit on both sides of the floor shooting 54.1%, including 50% from behind the 3-pt arc, and holding LSU to 40.3%. Four of five Bulldogs’ starters went for at least 11 points in the game led by Aric Holman (17 points), who also had nine boards, and Lamar Peters (15 points). Quinndary Weatherspoon (17.7 ppg) leads MSU in scoring and they have three players that are averaging in double figures. Last season they split the two games facing Arkansas winning at home and losing on the road.
Getting blown out in the 2nd half
Arkansas put a scare into Kentucky in their last game only trailing by three in the first half, but they were blown out in the 2nd half and lost 97-71. In the 2nd half the Wildcats outscored the Razorbacks by 23 points for the game Kentucky shot a scorching 53.3% from the floor while Arkansas only shot 39.7%. The Razorbacks were also dominated on the boards, as UK had 15 more overall and six more offensive rebounds. Daryl Macon and Moses Kingsley combined for 29 points in the game, but Dusty Hannahs, who is averaging 13.9 ppg) really struggled only going for six points on 2/12 shooting and missing all five of his 3-pointers. Macon leads four players that are averaging in double figures and one of those guys is 6’10” Kingsley, who is also averaging 8.7 rpg.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are:
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game
The Arkansas Razorbacks are:
- 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss
- 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600
- 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record
- 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record
Arkansas has to be happy to be back at home after getting crushed on the road facing UK in their last game. They will get back in the W column in this game and cover the spread evening their SEC record to 2-2 in the process.
I dig every sport and the NFL is my favorite. My team is the Redskins and my 2nd favorite is whoever is playing the Cowboys! I am a great handicapper and if you don’t believe me just ask. I don’t just write about betting on games I actually bet on them and I have done well, which is why it is a good idea to follow my picks.
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