Iowa vs. Purdue, 01/12/17 - Expert Prediction
Written by: Nikhil Kalro
Purdue Boilermakers (14-3, 9-5 ATS) at Iowa Hawkeyes (10-7, 5-8 ATS)
NCAAB: Thursday, January 12 at 9.00 PM ET, Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, Iowa
The Line: Purdue -5.5
The Purdue Boilermakers, 14-3 for the season, travel to Iowa City to face the Iowa Hawkeyes in a Big Ten match-up on Thursday night. The Boilermakers are coming into this one on an efficient, clinical win against the Wisconsin Badgers. The Hawkeyes beat the Rutgers Scarlet Knights 68-62.
Hawkeyes complete quality turnaround
The Iowa Hawkeyes bounced back from a nine-point deficit to beat the Rutgers Scarlet Knights 68-62 on Sunday. Peter Jok scored 18 points and Cordell Pemsl managed 13 points. The game was tied at halftime, but the Scarlet Knights came out hot after the break.
The Hawkeyes didn’t make a field goal for more than eight minutes in the second half. But they used a late 17-4 run to ensure Rutgers were still without a conference win this season. “Instead of rolling over, we decided to come out as a collective unit and get stops that led to easy buckets. We did that down the stretch,” Pemsl said. The Hawkeyes committed 18 turnovers.
Jok leads this team’s offense with 22.6 PPG, making about 45% of his shots. Iowa manage to score 83 points a game which ranks them 28th in the country. They also put up 40.8 boards per game, tied for 16th overall.
Purdue get back to simple basketball basics
The Purdue Boilermakers improved on the defensive end and that translated into better, efficient offense. All of it came together to help Purdue get past the No. 13 Wisconsin Badgers, who were coming into this game on the back of eight wins. Caleb Swanigan posted a double-double, 18 points and 13 rebounds. Isaac Haas scored 13 points.
Purdue restricted Wisconsin to 39% from the field and 2 of 14 from beyond the arc. “We felt we could play really good defense against them because of the way we matched up with them,” Swanigan said. “We wanted them to shoot over our size all night.”
The Boilermakers have some of the best statistics in the country: they score 83 points a game, 29th in the country. They also average 19.5 assists per game on their baskets, which ranks them second nationally. Also, they’re strong on the boards, putting up a little over 40 rebounds per game, 30th overall.
Purdue Boilermakers are:
- 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.
- 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 against Big Ten opponents
- 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Iowa Hawkeyes are:
- 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 games overall.
- 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
- 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games against a team with a winning straight up record.
- 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.
This could be a close contest, but the Boilermakers have found their template for the season with the win against Wisconsin. On paper, Purdue has the edge in offense, defense, confidence and form. Take the Boilermakers for an ATS win.
The Pick: Purdue Boilermakers -5.5
Nikhil has been working with ESPN since the age of 18 and covers cricket for their website ESPNcricinfo. When not writing or editing news, game reports, commentary and analysis stories, he is following American sports. A love for stats and patterns, research and results and plain simple learning with a few years of handicapping experience makes him almost 0.500 reliable. A degree in business administration and a keen eye for volatile industries like the stock market help too.
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