A Big West showdown here as the Cal State Northridge Matadors travel to take on the Cal Poly Mustangs. CSUN enters the game at 7-10, while Cal Poly sits at 4-10. Oddsmakers have this game nearly even, so it should be a good one.
CSUN Getting Hot
After a rough start to the year, things are picking up for Northridge basketball. They got a great hire when they were able to pick up their new head coach Mark Gottfried, the former NC State coach, and he’s done a great job turning the program around. That said, I still think they’re another year away.
Yes, they’ve now won four of their last six games, but when you dig in it isn’t that impressive. Two of the four wins came by exactly one point, and none of them were against good teams. When they’ve played decent teams the results have been ugly for the most part, like when they got beatdown by 35 points by New Mexico State. They’re a poor free throw shooting team, shooting only 63% from the charity stripe, which could haunt them here on the road.
They’ve also struggled pretty heavily on the road this year, with their only two road wins being a one-point victory over an awful UC Riverside team, and a narrow win over Pepperdine. The coach is playing his own son Cameron Gottfried over 26 minutes a game with terrible results, and the team turns the ball over a ton. This Northridge team has some potential, but them being slight favorites on the road here is kind of ridiculous.
Cal Poly Hangs Tough
I’ve been incredibly high on UCSB all season, and think they’re a heavy favorite to win the Big West. Cal Poly played them in their most recent game, and hung very tough with the Gauchos, giving them a great fight the entire way and losing only narrowly when they were expected to be blown out.
It was the second straight strong performance for Cal Poly, as they were coming off a 21 point victory in their previous game. Cal Poly played great defense against the Gauchos, and limited UCSB’s potent offense to just 65 points. The main problem with this Mustangs team has been their lack of consistent outside shooting, but they tend to play and shoot a lot better at home.
Donovan Fields from jimmerland!!! pic.twitter.com/fL0N0lKn6P
— Jessica Vo (@JessicaVoSports) November 16, 2017
All four of their wins this season have come at home, and they’ve only lost one game at home in regulation this year, and that was to a very good Texas State team. Star senior Donovan Fields, averaging over 16 points per game, also plays much better at home and should dominate here. Cal Poly is a defensive team that likes to play slow and get you into a hard-fought slugfest. If they can dictate the pace of this game and make Northridge play on their terms, they should escape with the win.
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big West
- 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I like the Mustangs a lot here as short home dogs. They play their best basketball at home, and the Matadors aren’t battle tested on the road. Northridge has gotten lucky with a ton of close wins recently, and I think their luck runs out here. Cal Poly wins this game easily.
Prediction: Cal Poly +1
Full-Game Total Pick
I like the under even more than the side here. The Mustangs play at an extremely slow pace, and don’t shoot the three well. Almost every single game is a grind it out low scoring affair, and I expect that to continue here. The under is 8-3 the last 11 times these teams have met, and Cal Poly’s offense is the type that makes your eyes bleed after watching it.