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SEC action tips tonight as the LSU Tigers visit Ole Miss.
Today’s matchup pits two teams headed in opposite directions. On the positive side, LSU has overcome its mediocre non-conference performance to stand unbeaten (4-0) in SEC play. That run includes victories over Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi State and Texas A&M: the latter wins came by one possession, but showed the Tigers’ clutch mentality. The Tigers’ record currently stands at 12-4 (4-0 SEC).
Meanwhile, after a 9-3 non-conference start, but with no standout wins, Ole Miss has dropped three straight conference matchups. The Rebels stand 9-7 overall (0-3 SEC) and resemble a far cry from the Mississippi group which snuck into the NCAA Tournament last year.
KenPom’s latest ratings reflect the divergent trajectories of each program as LSU ranks #32 and Ole Miss #111.
Last season, the Tigers scored an 83-69 road win vs. Mississippi.
LSU looks to remain unbeaten in SEC actionWhile catching fire to claim 2018-2019’s SEC regular season title, and subsequent Sweet 16 appearance, LSU is finding similar success at the calendar turn. Led by senior Skylar Mays (16.0 ppg), the talent-laden Tigers have designs of matching their 16-2 SEC mark behind Mays and top-contributors Emmitt Williams (13.2), Trendon Watford (13.1), Darius Days (12.5) and Ja’Vonte Smart (11.2). The Tigers’ deep offensive wellspring sees the group average 79.9 ppg, which ranks #10 nationally when adjusted.
Wattfordand Mays each added 19 to deploy LSU’s quick-hitting strike during a recent 89-85 road win vs. the Texas A&M Aggies. That scoring burst was needed as the Tigers’ middling defense (68.6 ppg) had difficulties. Although, Ole Miss’ offensive misgivings should help showcase the best two-way version of LSU basketball.
The Tigers are 3-3 away this season.
Ole Miss seeks rare offensive success today vs. TigersAfter losing standout Terence Davis to the NBA, Ole Miss has fallen offensively as depth concerns grow and shots miss their mark. During a recent 71-55 setback opposite Florida, Kermit Davis’ men made just three of 16 from deep as KJ Buffen (20) and Blake Hinson (16) couldn’t carry the load while their supporting cast added 19 points. Overall, Ole Miss averages 68.8 ppg (#251 NCAA) while netting 43-31 shooting.
Defensively, the Rebels operate at a more efficient clip allowing 66.2 ppg (#104 NCAA). The strength of Ole Miss’ defense resides in its perimeter zone: the Rebels hold opposing units to 29 percent outside shooting; though, interior-centric groups have found success completing 50percent of attempts.
- Rebels are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Rebels are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
- Rebels are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
- Rebels are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Trends courtesy of Covers.com
- Tigers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Tigers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.
- Tigers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
With Emmitt Williams and Trendon Watford operating inside, expect LSU to run its SEC record to 5-0 today. LSU offers too much versatile offensive firepower for an Ole Miss collective which doesn’t boast the return fire needed to remain alongside a hungry Tigers bunch seeking to again mark its territory in SEC action. Behind the efficient interior play of Williams and Watford, look for LSU’s balanced starting group to run the score up a bit tonight vs. the Rebels. Take LSU with the win.
Full-Game Total Pick
I’ll take the Under today as Ole Miss hasn’t proven it can keep pace this season alongside upper-tier opposition. That stated, neither team pushes an extraordinary tempo: LSU ranks just outside the top-100 pace -adjusted groups and the Rebels rate among the mid-200’s. On Ole Miss’ home floor, look for their zone defense to be just enough to keep the Tigers from turning this staple SEC clash into a blowout. With LSU using fewer possessions and relying on interior offense, take the Under.