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Atlantic 10 verse Summit League here lies the Dayton Flyers host the Omaha Mavericks. Omaha enters this one at 2-2 and is coming off a loss to Colorado State, while Dayton is 2-0 on the year. Oddsmakers opens dating as a large double-digit favorite for this one, which will be streamed by ESPN+.
Omaha UncertainAfter a disappointing 9-22 finish two seasons ago, Omaha bounced back with a respectable 19-10 showing last year. They finished second in the Summit League last season, so understandably there has been some optimism surrounding the team heading into this campaign. Unfortunately for the Mavericks, they've got a lot of talent to replace. Both of their leading scorers from last season, Zach Jackson and Mitchell Hahn, graduated. Jackson averaged over 18 points per game last season, and they don't have a clear alpha dog to replace him. Omaha enters this one at 2-2, but things haven't been as good as that seems.
Their two wins came against a non-Division 1 team and Bethune-Cookman, one of the worst teams in D1 basketball. Their two losses came to Wichita State and Colorado State, and both were by at least 14 points. They've been sloppy with the ball, and are averaging nearly 14 turnovers per game. They've looked somewhat overwhelmed when they've had to play tougher competition, averaging less than 60 points per game in their two losses. Most recently against Colorado State, they only shot 35.4 percent from the field. They gave up 80 points in the loss to CSU, and allowed the Rams to dominate them physically. Size is a real concern for the Mavericks, as they don't have anybody in the rotation taller than 6'8. I'm going to be worried about them getting bullied in the post all season long.
Dayton Back?Dayton has often been one of the nation's best mid-major programs in recent years, but they've missed the NCAA tournament in each of the past two seasons after making it the previous four years in a row. Still they improved dramatically last year from the year before, and there's been a lot of buzz about this Flyers team entering the season. Anthony Grant is in his third year as coach, and it looks like they might be poised to take a huge step forward. They looked great in their most recent game, dominating Charleston Southern by 29 points, and they enter this one at 2-0. They returned three of their top four leading scorers from last season, and they also added talented transfer Rodney Chatman from Chattanooga.
Dominant debut for 6-9, 220 lbs + 21-year-old @DaytonMBB sophomore F Obi Toppin, who had 29 PTS (10/16 FG), 12 REBS + 2 BLKS in a 86-81 win over Indiana State. The 24th prospect in our top-100 will look to build on his performance at the @nikebasketball skills academy this summer pic.twitter.com/1FIQTn1IFu— DraftExpressContent (@DXContent) November 12, 2019
Chatman averaged over 13 points per game in his last full college season, and he has been great through two games. Dayton now has a ton of experience, and five of their top six scorers this year are upperclassmen. The only one who's not an upperclassman also happens to be their best player. Sophomore Obi Toppin has been downright dominant through two games, averaging 25 points and 11.5 rebounds. If he keeps playing this way, then this could be his last season at Dayton. They haven't even shot the ball well from 3, but have still managed to put up at least 86 points in each of their first two games. If they can pick it up from outside, which they should be able to, this offense is going to be borderline unstoppable. Dayton is a very popular team in the area, and they usually draw a really solid home crowd.
Trends, courtesy of Covers.com: Mavericks are:
- 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
- 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I think Dayton wins this one by at least 20. They are coming off a 29-point win in their most recent game, and each of Omaha's two losses have been by at least 14 points. Omaha simply doesn't have enough offense to hang here, and they have averaged less than 60 points per game in their two contests against superior teams. Dayton has had one of the best offenses in the nation so far this season, and they should be able to dominate Omaha inside with their massive strength advantage.
Prediction: Dayton -15
Full-Game Total Pick
I also like the over in this spot. Dayton has been simply dominant offensively, scoring at least 86 points in each of their first two games. Omaha doesn't play a single player taller than 6'8, and so Dayton should be able to get whatever they want inside. Toppin is an athletic beast, and he should be able to dominate against this Omaha team's inferior athletes. Dayton's defense has been lacking a bit, and they did give up 81 points to a mediocre Indiana State team in their opener.