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Illinois State Redbirds vs. TCU Horned Frogs
NCAAB: Tuesday, December 3, 2019 at 9:00 PM EST
Illinois State snapped their four-game losing streak in their last game but needed to face a Division 2 team to do it. The team needs to play good defense since they are not a high scoring team and in their four-game skid, they only averaged 65.5 ppg. This is their first road game of the season and dating back to last season they have failed to cover in four of their last five road games.
TCU is off to a solid 5-1 start and they got over their first loss of the season by winning their last game where they only gave up 47 points. The Horned Frogs cannot light it up, but they have played great defense on the young season ranking 18th in the nation only giving up an average of 58 ppg.
These teams met last in the 2016 season where TCU beat Illinois State 80-71.
Beating a MinnowGood thing Illinois State had D2 Illinois-Springfield on the schedule, where they won 76-57, to snap their four-game losing streak. In the game, they did not have a great shooting game with an FG% of 45.3% and they missed 13 of their 16 3-pointers but they held their D2 opponent to 33.3% shooting. In the win, four players for the Redbirds scored in double figures led by Zach Copeland with 18 points.
Copeland (14.9 ppg) and Dedric Boyd (12.6 ppg) are the only players averaging in double figures for Illinois State and no other player for the team is even averaging over 7.3 ppg. Copeland has been up and down in his last few games and Boyd only had nine points in the win over Illinois-Springfield and has not surpassed his season average in the last three games.
Defense Helps Get Win This Time AroundAfter losing to Clemson 62-60 in OT where TCU held them to 35.8% shooting they beat Wyoming in their last game 64-47 holding them to 33.3% shooting. In that game, the Horned Frogs outscored the Cowboys 30-14 in the first half and forced 14 turnovers. Desmond Bane had a big game for TCU with 22 points and he also had 11 rebounds.
Bane leads three Horned Frogs averaging in double figures on the season at 18 ppg and he has posted a double in each of his last two games. Second leading scorer RJ Nembhard only scored two points in the win over Wyoming after totaling 35 points in his previous two games. Kevin Samuel (10.8 ppg 8.5 rpg) is the leading rebounder for the Horned Frogs and also only had two points in the last game and has scored four or fewer points in two of his last three games. TCU has won all four of their home games this season.
According to the betting trends from Covers.com, the TCU Horned Frogs are:
- 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Missouri Valley
- 14-3 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games
- 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 Tuesday games
According to the betting trends from Covers.com, the Illinois State Redbirds are:
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record
- 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up win
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
TCU is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games while Illinois State is 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Look for those trends to continue and this game could get ugly quickly. The Horned Frogs have a great defense and that will be shown in this game where they will bottle up the Redbirds. Illinois State has issues on offense and facing a great defense in TCU this game is a terrible matchup for them. The Horned Frogs will easily win this game on their home floor and cover the spread sending Illinois State to their 5th loss in their last six games.
Full-Game Total Pick
TCU will win this game and win handily but in doing so they will not light up the scoreboard. However, they will play killer defense, which is what they did in their last game and have done so for the whole season. The Redbirds will really struggle with their shot and they come into this game after a win but against a D2 opponent while they lost their previous four games. The Horned Frogs will win a low scoring game where the Under is THE pick.