Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Dayton Flyers vs. St. Mary’s Gaels
NCAAB: Sunday, December 8, 2019, at 4:00 PM EST
This game is being held at a neutral site at the Talking Stick Resort Arena Phoenix, Arizona as part of the Air Force Reserve Jerry Colangelo Classic.
Dayton is the 19th ranked team in the nation after an OT loss to 4th ranked Kansas in the finals of the Maui Invitational they came back with a blowout win in their last game. The defense for the Flyers has not been great on the season but they have been lighting up the scoreboard and rank 2nd in the nation putting up an average of 88.7 ppg.
St. Mary’s has already played 10 games and at 9-1 and beating a ranked team already they are still not in the top 25. However, that may change in this game if they come out with a win. They have won eight in a row since suffering a shocking loss to Winthrop in their 2nd game of the season. This game is all about the offense of the Flyers against the defense of the Gaels, which ranks 30th in the nation only giving up an average of 60.3 ppg.
Back to the BlowoutAfter their tough 90-84 OT loss to Kansas, Dayton got back in the W column in their last game crushing Houston Baptist 99-68 in their last game. The game was pretty close at the half but the Flyers outscored Houston Baptist by 24 points in the 2nd half and for the game, they shot 59.4% from the floor and held Houston Baptist to 38.6% shooting.
Obi Toppin is the big gun for the Flyers, as he is averaging 22.1 ppg while the next two leading scorers are averaging around 11 ppg. He has scored below his season average in the last two games but has totaled 35 points and shot over 53% from the floor in both games. He also leads Dayton in rebounding (8.6 rpg) and he has pulled down 19 boards in his last two games. Jaylen Crutcher is the 2nd leading scorer (11.9 ppg) and he has scored 12 points in each of his last two games struggling with his shot in the Kansas game but shooting 50% from the field in the win over Houston Baptist.
Killing it on DIn their last game, St. Mary’s won their 9th game of the season in a 61-49 win over Northern Illinois 61-49 where their defense was more than solid. They did not have the best shooting game against NIU (39.2%), but they held them to a FG% of only 36% and they forced 13 turnovers.
Jordan Ford (20.2 ppg) is the leading scorer for the Gaels and he has not shot the rock that well in the last two games and in the win over NIU he only had 12 points on 28.6% shooting. Malik Fitts (13.8 ppg 7.9 rpg) is the 2nd leading scorer and leading rebounder for the team and he has recorded a double-double in each of his last three games. Tanner Krebs (12.9 ppg) is the other player for St. Mary’s averaging in double figures on the season and he has totaled 33 points in his last three games.
According to the betting trends from Covers.com, the St. Mary’s Gaels are:
- 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss
- 8-20 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games as an underdog
- 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog
According to the betting trends from Covers.com, the Dayton Flyers are:
- 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game
- 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win
4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Dayton and their offense against St. Mary’s and their defense. The Flyers have played the tougher schedule beating two teams from major conferences in Georgia and Virginia Tech and they took Kansas to OT, which is a great feat. They have the scorers and Tobbin may be one of the best players in the country from a non-major conference. However, the Gaels have beaten a ranked team in Utah State and their defense has been the strength of the team. Usually, I would take the team with the better defense, but not in this one, as Dayton will get the win and cover in this non-conference tourney game.
Full-Game Total Pick
While I would tend to pick the team with the better defense to win the game I am going with Dayton in this one. Because of that, I am taking the Over in this game, as I think the Flyers will have a good game on the offensive side of the floor despite the fact that St. Mary's has a good defense. Dayton has an over record of 7-1 in their last eight games and while the Gaels are led by their defense the total had gone Over in four of their last five games. You have to take into consideration both of these teams and that is especially the case since they both will continue in this game. Take the Over in this game in the desert.