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Troy Trojans vs. Georgia State Panthers
NCAAB: Saturday, February 13, 2019, GSU Sports Arena, Atlanta, Georgia, 7:00 PM ET
The Troy Trojans and the Georgia State Panthers will lock horns in the Sun Belt showdown from GSU Sports Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, meeting each other for the second time this season. The Trojans have beaten the Panthers 77-75 as 1.5-point underdogs at home and won four of the last five head-to-head duels. The Panthers are sitting at the 3rd spot of the Sun Belt standings just one game behind the leader Texas State, while the Trojans are three games behind the Panthers.
The Trojans will try to avoid their fourth straight loss on the road
The Troy Trojans (11-12; 4-7 ATS) are coming off an 84-79 home win over the Arkansas State Red Wolves to put an end to their four-game losing streak. Javan Johnson led his team with 20 points and four triples out of seven attempts, while the Trojans shot excellent 54.7% from the field and 46.2% from beyond the arc to clinch the series with the Red Wolves. However, the Trojans have been playing in a poor form lately, losing seven of their previous 11 games overall, while they are 1-4 straight up and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games on the road.
Troy enters the clash with Georgia State as a No. 232 at the NCAA NET Rankings and a No. 224 at the latest KenPom rankings. The Trojans are scoring 107.5 points per 100 possessions (100th in the country) on 47.7% shooting from the field (41st) and 34.8% from downtown (156th), allowing whopping 112.9 points in a return (326th) on 44.7% shooting from the field (244th) and 38.5% from deep (342nd). The senior forward Jordon Varnado is leading the Trojans with 21.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game while hitting 52.6% of his field goals. Another senior forward Alex Hicks is tallying 12.6 points and 8.0 rebounds per contest, while the sophomore guard Darian Adams is adding 7.5 points and 3.4 dimes per game.
The Panthers seek to snap their two-game skid
The Georgia State Panthers (16-8; 7-4 Conf.) are back home after losing two consecutive games on the road at Louisiana Monroe 82-76 and Louisiana-Lafayette 76-72. The Panthers have dropped to the third spot of the conference table, so the victory over the Trojans seems like a must. The Panthers have been playing poorly over the last few weeks, winning just two of their previous six matchups and losing three straight games away from home. Also, the Panthers have covered the spread only once in their previous eight showings, while they are 4-1 straight up and 2-3 ATS in the last five games on the home court.
Georgia State enters the matchup with Troy as a No. 134 at the NCAA NET Rankings and a No. 135 at the latest KenPom rankings. The Panthers are scoring 107.3 points per 100 possessions (108th in the country) on 46.9% shooting from the field (68th) and 38.8% from beyond the arc (20th), allowing 103.6 points in a return (166th) on 43.0% shooting from the field (136th) and 33.7% from downtown (145th). The junior guard D’Marcus Simonds is leading the way for the Panthers, averaging 19.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. The senior wing Jeff Thomas is posting 11.5 points and 4.6 rebounds per outing, while the sophomore guard Kane Williams is tallying 10.7 points and 3.6 assists per contest.
Georgia State Panthers:
- 17-3 SU and 9-11 ATS in the last 20 games at home
- 4-3 SU and 1-6 ATS in the last seven games as favorites
- Under is 5-3 in the last eight games overall
- 6-14 SU and 9-10-1 ATS in the last 20 games on the road
- 2-5 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last seven road meetings with Georgia State
- Over is 6-2 in the last eight games overall
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The Panthers have lost the first H2H duel of the season thanks to Jordon Varnado’s 3-pointer with 1.7 seconds left on the clock which means they will be highly motivated to get a payoff in front of the home fans. While both teams have been poor recently, the Panthers certainly need a victory more than the Trojans, as the hosts have to keep the pace in the Sun Belt title race. Hereof, give me the Panthers and points.
Prediction: Georgia State Panthers -8.0 (-110)
Full-Game Total Pick
The first duel at Troy was finished in the under by just one point, and I think this one should be ended in the over. Both teams execute well on the offensive end, while the Trojans’ defense is quite awful. Also, the last seven H2H duels at GSU Sports arena were ended in the over.
Prediction: Over 147.5 points (-110)
Full-Game Prop Bet
The Trojans are surrendering 80.0 points per contest over their previous five outings on the road, and I’ve already mentioned how fragile their defense is. On the other side, the Panthers are scoring 77.8 points per game over their last five showings at home, so I think they should surpass a 78-point mark against the Trojans. I expect to see a bunch of points tonight, so I’m backing the Panthers in the over on their team totals.
Prediction: Team Totals: Georgia State Panthers over 78.5 points (-110)
Half-Time Side Pick
The Panthers were trailing at halftime in two of their last five games overall, but they were leading at halftime in four of their last five games at home along with a tie with Texas State. On the other side, the Trojans were leading in three of their last five games overall and only once in their previous four showings on the road. I’m taking the Panthers to continue with their strong performance on the home court, while the Trojans are mostly struggling when playing away from home.
Prediction: Georgia State Panthers -4.5 (-110)