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South USF Bulls vs. UCF Knights
NCAAB: Wednesday, February 13, 2019 at 7:00 PM EST
After a hiccup losing three in a row USF has regrouped and they are in the midst of a five-game win streak. They are at 7-4 in AAC play three games back of Houston and 17-6 overall. However, not being a major conference the Bulls have to keep winning and get deep and maybe even win the conference tournament to get an invite to the Big Dance. They have played solid D in their win streak and USF ranks 43rd in the nation giving up an average of only 65.6 ppg.
UCF has won two of their last three games and while they also have 17 wins they are a half game up on USF in conference play. They are in the same boat as the Bulls not only in terms of what they have to in order to get in Big Dance consideration, but also a team led by a defense that ranks 29th in the nation in points allowed.
This is the first game between these teams this season.
UCF is 4-0 ATS in their last four games facing USF.
Great D in the extra period
In their last game, USF was at home and they beat East Carolina 72-68 in overtime where they played solid D in the extra period only giving up six points. for the game, they shot a lower FG% than the Pirates (42% to 45.5%) they did not shoot the 3 as well, AND they committed 20 turnovers. However, they had 11 more points from the free throw line and had 18 offensive rebounds while only giving up six. Four of five starters for the Bulls scored in double figures led by David Collins with 20 points, and also had nine rebounds and Mayan Kiir more than doubles his season average to go for 13 points.
Collins leads three players for USF that are averaging at least 13 ppg and 15.2 ppg and he has scored at least 20 points in each of his last three games. The Bulls have covered the spread in 11 of their last 12 road games.
Shooting is pretty key
UCF was on the road in their last game beating SMU 71-65 where the shooting was the big difference in the game. While they had more turnovers and few offensive rebounds they shot 52% from the floor and 43.8% from 3-pt land while holding SMU to a FG% of only 39.7% and 27% from deep. Aubrey Dawkins went big for the Knights to lead the team with 26 points on 9/12 shooting and Collin Smith went for a double with 18 points and 10 rebounds.
Outside ⚔️ Inside
— UCF Men's Basketball (@UCF_MBB) February 11, 2019
B.J Taylor (16.7 ppg) and Dawkins (15.5 ppg) are the only two players for UCF averaging in double figures on the season. Taylor had gone for 21 points in two straight games before only scoring eight in the win over SMU and Dawkins had only totaled 24 points in three games before blowing up for 26 points in the last game. This season, UCF is 11-2 at home and USF is 3-3 on the road. The Knights are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
The UCF Knights are:
- 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win
- 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
The USF Bulls are:
- 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games
- 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. American Athletic Conference
- 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
So, both of these teams have the same number of wins and are, pretty much, tied in conference play. However, the Bulls have been a great road bet this season while the Knights are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Those trends will continue in this battle for the Sunshine State, as UCF may get the win in what will be a close game, but USF will cover the spread.
Prediction: PICK: USF
Full-Game Total Pick
A couple of the key head-to-head trends point to the Over, especially the one where the total has gone Over every time in the last five games between these teams at UCF. Still, I will buck those trends, as this will be a low scoring game. Both teams really need a W and they will slow the pace,. which means points will be at a premium and the Under is THE pick for this conference game.
Prediction: PICK: Under