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Baylor Bears vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
NCAAB: Saturday, February 16, 2019, United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, Texas, 2:00 PM ET
The Baylor Bears have already upset the Texas Tech Red Raiders this season and will try to do it again when these two schools meet each other at United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock, Texas. The Red Raiders are laying at the 2nd spot of the Big 12 standings just 1.5 games behind the Kansas State Wildcats, while the Bears are at the 5th spot half a game behind Texas Tech, so there’s a lot on the table in Lubbock Saturday afternoon.
The Bears look to extend their winning streak over the Red Raiders
The Baylor Bears (16-8; 7-4 Conf.) are coming off a 59-53 home victory over the Oklahoma Sooners this past Monday to put an end to their two-game skid. The Bears put on a strong defensive performance to allow the Sooners just 22 points in the second half and will need to replicate that performance if they want to beat the Red Raiders for the third time in a row. The Bears are 7-3 straight up and 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten games overall, and are 4-2 straight up and 5-1 ATS in their previous six outings away from home.
Baylor enters the matchup with Texas Tech as a No. 32 at the NCAA NET Rankings and a No. 31 at the latest KenPom rankings. The Bears are scoring 113.3 points per 100 possessions (29th in the country) on 45.2% shooting from the field (152nd) and 33.8% from beyond the arc (212th), allowing 96.1 points in a return (42nd) on 41.3% shooting from the field (60th) and 32.9% from beyond the arc (110th). The senior guard Makai Mason is the Bears’ leading scorer with 15.6 points per game on 44.0% shooting from the field. Tristan Clark is averaging 14.6 points and 6.3 rebounds per contest but will miss the rest of the season due to a knee injury, while the senior guard King McClure is posting 9.9 points and 5.4 rebounds per game.
The Red Raiders seek for their fourth straight win
The Texas Tech Red Raiders (20-5; 8-4 Conf.) are riding a three-game winning streak following a brilliant 78-50 victory at the Oklahoma State Cowboys this past Wednesday. The Raiders limited the Cowboys on 36.7% shooting from the field while making 51.8% of their field goals including 12 triples out of 25 attempts. The Raiders continue their battle for the Big 12 regular-season title and the matchup with Baylor is just another tough test on their schedule. Texas Tech is 6-4 straight up and 5-5 ATS in its last ten games overall, while the Red Raiders are 7-1 straight up and 3-4-1 ATS in their previous eight outings on the home court.
Texas Tech enters Saturday’s matchup as a No. 10 at the NCAA NET Rankings and a No. 10 at the latest KenPom rankings. The Red Raiders are scoring 108.3 points per 100 possessions (88th in the country) on 46.9% shooting from the field (68th) and 35.3% from beyond the arc (135th), allowing just 83.7 points in a return (1st in the country) on 36.2% shooting from the field (also 1st) and 27.2% from downtown (5th). The sophomore guard Jarrett Culver is leading the way for the Red Raiders, averaging 17.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game while making 50.3% of his field goals. The senior guard Matt Mooney is tallying 10.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per outing, while the senior big man Tariq Owens is adding 8.3 points and 5.4 rebounds per contest.
Texas Tech Red Raiders:
- 15-5 SU and 7-12-1 ATS in the last 20 games overall
- 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five games as favorites
- Under is 4-2-1 in the previous seven games overall
- 7-13 SU and 11-9 ATS in the last 20 games on the road
- 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five games as underdogs
- Over is 9-3 in the last 12 games overall
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The Red Raiders are back on the winning track, looking for a payoff against the Bears who are playing very well as underdogs which promises a spectacular game on Saturday. Also, both teams are in the mix for the Big 12 title, so I expect to see a close game that could be easily decided by a few possessions down the stretch. The Red Raiders are 3-2 straight up and 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Bears, and their defense has been excellent all season long, so I’m backing them to grab a win here and cover along the way.
Prediction: Texas Tech Red Raiders -7.5 (-110)
Full-Game Total Pick
Three of the last four head-to-head duels in Lubbock were ended in the under, while both Baylor and Texas Tech play at a pretty slow pace. Baylor is averaging 64.7 possessions per 40 minutes (311th in the country) and Texas Tech is recording 66.3 possessions per 40 minutes (242nd), so I think the game will be finished in the under even though the bookies will set paltry chalk. However, Baylor’s defense is a top 30 and will meet the best defense in the country.
Prediction: Under 129.0 points (-110)
Full-Game Prop Bet
The Red Raiders’ last five games were decided by 12 or more points, while the Bears’ previous three games were decided by 12 or fewer points. The Raiders are strong favorites here, but it shouldn’t be an easy task against the sturdy Bears who can play some tough defense, so I don’t expect to see a blowout. Hereof, I think there’s a value in the winning margin within six and ten points, hoping the Bears will keep it close down the stretch.
Prediction: Winning Margin: Texas Tech Red Raiders by 6-10 points (+350)
Half-Time Side Pick
Texas Tech was leading at halftime in four of its last five outings, losing only at the Kansas Jayhawks. On the other side, Baylor is coming off a 31-31 first-half tie with Oklahoma at home, while the Bears were leading at halftime in two of their previous five games overall. I expect to see a tight first half with the under on the totals, but I’m still backing the hosts to take a lead.
Prediction: Texas Tech Red Raiders -4.0 (-110)