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Cal State Northridge vs. Cal Poly,
2-22-2018 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#623 Cal State Northridge
Matadors 134.5
#624 Cal Poly
Mustangs -5

Thursday, February 22, 2018 at 10:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Cal State Northridge Matadors

6 - 21


Cal Poly Mustangs

8 - 19


Cal State Northridge Matadors (6-21) vs. Cal Poly Mustangs (8-19)

Where and when:  Robert A. Mott Athletic Center, San Luis Obispo, California, Thursday, 10:00 pm EST

In a rematch from 1/20/2018, the Cal State Northridge Matadors will travel to meet the Cal Poly Mustangs on Thursday, 10 pm EST, at the Robert A. Mott Athletic Center in San Luis Obispo, California.  In their last meeting, the Matadors blew out the Mustangs 72-54 at home.  In this game, the Matadors opened a 15-point halftime lead and preceded to outscore the Mustangs 36-33 in the second half en route to the victory.  For the game, Northridge shot 52.1% from the field and 40% from 3-point range, while holding Cal Poly to 35.7% from the field and a mere 14.3% from 3-point range (3 for 21).  The Matadors dominated on the boards by a margin of 33-26, while committing 13 turnovers compared to 12 for the Mustangs.  Coming in as 4-point home underdogs, Northridge was able to cover the spread in this matchup.

Cal State Northridge comes into this matchup losers of 7 of their last 10 games (6-4 ATS), while the Cal Poly Mustangs come into the game losers of 8 of their last 10 (1-8-1 ATS).  In their last outing, Northridge suffered an 88-70 road loss to Cal State Fullerton on Saturday.  As 11.5-point underdogs, the Matadors were not able to cover the spread.  On the other hand, the Mustangs were blown out at home 75-58 by Cal Irvine on Saturday.  As 5-point underdogs, Cal Poly was not able to cover the spread, either.

Matadors Blitzed by Fullerton

After opening a 4-point halftime lead, Cal State Fullerton outscored the Matadors 47-33 in the second half en route to an 88-70 home win on Saturday.  For the game, Fullerton shot 50% from the field and 43.8% from 3-point range, while allowing Cal State Northridge to shoot 52.9% from the field and 61.5% from 3-point range (8 for 13).  The Titans dominated the Matadors on the boards by a margin of 32-26, while committing only 8 turnovers compared to 18 for the Matadors.  Furthermore, the Titans shot 80.8% from the free throw line, while the Matadors were terrible, shooting only 57.1% (8 of 14).  The loss was the 2nd in a row for the Matadors, and their 7th in 8 games.

Offensively, Cal State Northridge averages 64.7 points per game on 43% shooting from the field (36.3% from 3-point range).  They also shoot an average of 70.7% from the free throw line while grabbing 31.5 rebounds per game.

Tayrion Dawson (16.3 ppg, 6.4 rebs) and Michael Warren (12.1 ppg, 6.1 rebs) are the leading scorers for the Matadors.  Terrell Gomez and Lyrik Shreiner are the other key contributors for the Matadors averaging 11.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3. 4 assists and 8.4 points, 4.4 rebounds per outing, respectively.

Defensively, the Matadors are allowing teams to score an average of 71.6 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field (34.4% from 3-point range).  They are also permitting opponents to pull down 33.3 rebounds per outing.

Mustangs Handled by Cal Irvine

Cal Poly was outscored 35-27 in the first half and 40-31 in the second half by Irvine on their way to a 75-58 home loss on Saturday.  For the game, the Mustangs shot only 35.2% from the field and a mere 22.7% from 3-point range, while the Anteaters were on fire shooting 51.8% from the field and 31.6% from 3-point range.  While the Anteaters dominated on the boards by a margin of 42-19, they committed 11 turnovers compared to 6 for the Mustangs.  The loss was the 4th in a row for Cal Poly.

Offensively, the Mustangs are averaging 67.2 points per game on 40% shooting from the field (36% from 3-point range).  They also shoot an average of 77.4% from the free throw line while pulling down 33 rebounds per outing.

Victor Joseph (13.9 ppg, 2.4 rebs) and Donovan Fields (13.1 ppg, 3.3 rebs, 4.1 ass) are the leading scorers for Cal Poly.  Luke Meikle and Josh Martin are the other solid contributors for the Mustangs averaging 8.7 points, 4.2 rebounds and 7.4 points, 5.3 rebounds.  Jakub Niziol is yet another key contributor for the Mustangs averaging 7.2 points, respectively.

Defensively, the Mustangs are permitting teams to score an average of 73.4 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field (38.7% from 3-point range).  Lastly, they are allowing opponents to grab 33.9 rebounds per game.


  • The Matadors are 6-2 ATS in last 8 games versus Mustangs
  • The Matadors are 9-6 ATS in last 15 Big West road games
  • The Under is 18-7-1 in last 26 games
  • No trends

Both teams are in the cellar of the Big West conference and are simply looking for a win to obtain some type of momentum in which to end the season on.  With that being said, one could only look at the 2-12 SU record on the road against conference opponents for Northridge, along with the average 6-6 SU record at home for the Mustangs against the Big West as an indicator as to which team has the inside tract in coming out with a victory in this matchup.  In essence, the Matadors have played horribly on the road all season, and while the Mustangs have not exactly been lighting it up at home, they are in a much better position to get the win on Thursday.  Pick the Mustangs to end a 2-game losing streak against a much worse road Cal State Northridge team.

Pick: Cal Poly Mustangs

Falepa Emme

A true analyst for a variety of sports, Falepa Emme has been a sports enthusiast for decades. His ability to read, learn, write, and constantly think sports will offer a unique perspective to NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, NHL, along with MLB contests. Falepa's passion for analytics in each of these areas will certainly benefit the reader in obtaining more insight into upcoming match-ups.


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