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The UC Davis Aggies will host the Long Beach State 49ers on Saturday night in a Big West conference match-up. UC Davis is 7-6 in conference play, currently in a three-way tie for third place and also 7-3 at home on the season. Long Beach State is 5-8 in the conference, tied for seventh and 2-11 in road games.
UC Davis was victorious on the road against Long Beach State 85-82 when the two teams met on Jan. 16.
UC Davis is the fourth highest-rated team in the Big West, according to KenPom at 215th in the nation, and Long Beach State is eighth in the conference rated as the 301st best, or maybe better yet said, the 52nd worst team in the country.
Long Beach State falls to CSU NorthridgeThe Long Beach State 49ers have faced the most challenging schedule among all teams in the Big West conference so far with a strength of schedule rating of 112th according to BPI, and the results overall have not been pretty. The 49ers rank 323rd in the nation for adjusted offensive efficiency and 242nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Long Beach State is averaging 66.6 points per game on the season while allowing 75.1.
Long Beach State is coming off a 73-64 loss as a 1.5 points favorite at home against CSU Northridge. The 49ers did not have a single starter in double figures. Max De Geest led the team with 11 points off the bench, knocking down all three of his attempts from beyond the arch. On the season Chance Hunter leads Long Beach State team in scoring with 13.9 points per game, followed by Michael Carter III (12.1 ppg ) and Slater (10.4 ppg).
UC Davis 4 -game winning streak comes to an endAfter winning four straight games and covering the spread in six consecutive games, the UC Davis Aggies streaks came to an end with a 70-56 road loss at UC Santa Barbara as an 8-point underdog on Thursday night. The Aggies leading scorer in the loss was 6' sophomore Damion Suire with only nine points.
UC Davis has averaged 73.3 points per game this season while shooting 46.4% from the field and has allowed its opponents to score 71.6 points per contest. Three guards lead the Aggies on the season. Joe Mooney, a 6'3 senior, leads the team with 13 points per game, followed by Ezra Manjon, a 5'11 freshman who adds 12.3 points per game. Stefan Gonzalez, a 6'2 senior, is third on the team in scoring with 10.9 points per game and has the nation's second-best three-point shooting percentage at 48.4%. As a team, UC Davis ranks 129th in the country for adjusted offensive efficiency and 306th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
- UC Davis is 6-1 ATS in last 7 games
- UC Davis is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss.
- UC Davis 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up loss.
- UC Davis is 17-4 in last 21 games ATS
- LBSU is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I expect the Aggies offense to be too much at home for the 49ers. The Aggies are the fifth-best three-point shooting team and sixth-best free-throw shooting team in the nation, shooting 10.3 percentage points better than LBSU from the charity-stripe. UC Davis has only lost four times against the spread since November 26, and I have no reason to go against them here.
Prediction: UC Davis
Full-Game Total Pick
Prior to only scoring 56 points against UCSB last Saturday, UC Davis had scored an average of 89.5 points per game over a four-game stretch and allowed an average of 79 points in those games. The Aggies are a small guard dominated team and should be able to do enough scoring in this game as Long Beach State plays at the fastest pace among all Big West teams, averaging 70.7 possessions per 40 minutes. Long Beach State has not been a great team offensively, but they get to face a UC Davis defense that is second to last in the conference allowing 108.4 points per 100 possessions, according to KenPom. These two teams combined for 167 points in their first meeting, and the last five games played in the series between the Aggies and 49ers have gone over. This is an easy call for me; I love the over