Georgia Southern Eagles at Texas State Bobcats
NCAAF: Thursday, October 11, 2018 at 7:30 PM EST
Georgia Southern is 4-1 on the season and they have won their last two games. They are 2-0 in Sun Belt play and three of the teams in the East Division are unbeaten in conference play. The Eagles put up 48 points in their last game and they are led by a defense that ranks 20th in the nation in points allowed per game and 7th in the nation averaging 275.2 rushing yards per game. Georgia Southern had no lack of highlights in their last game in a 48-13 blowout win over South Alabama.
— Georgia Southern Athletics (@GSAthletics) October 7, 2018
Texas State is 1-4 and they have lost their last three games. They have given up at least 41 points in two of their last three games and on the season they only rank tied for 104th in the nation in ppg and 97th in points allowed per game. The Bobcats are tied with UL Monroe in the basement of Sun Belt West Division at 0-2 in conference play.
Georgia Southern has covered their spread in all five games this season and their only loss came facing Clemson, who was the second ranked team in the nation at the time.
Eagles dominant in the ground game
In their last game, Georgia Southern beat South Alabama 48-13 at home, where they racked up an impressive 295 rushing yards. They only had 68 more total yards than South Alabama and passed for just 99 yards, but they allowed six points in the first three quarters and forced four turnovers while not committing any. Shai Werts only connected on five of eight passed for 99 yards, but had a TD and was not picked off and he also rushed for 85 yards with two TD. Monteo Garrett led the Eagles with 91 rushing yards, Wesley Fields chimed in for 81 rushing yards, and both Garrett and Werts averaged at least 8.3 yards per carry. Werts and Fields have combined for 833 rushing yards and 11 TD.
Werts has rushed for at least 83 yards in every game this season except the loss to Clemson where he only had 10 rushing yards. Georgia Southern will be facing a Texas State defense that ranks 77th in the nation defending the run and gave up a whopping 327 rushing yards in their last game.
Can’t stop the run
Texas State lost to Louisiana 42-27 in their last game where they gave up a ton of rushing yards, which is not good with Georgia Southern coming to town. Overall, the Bobcats gave up 557 yards and they were down 28-0 at the half. They did have 425 yards in the game and were pretty balanced with 301 passing yards and 124 rushing yards, but the defense was bad. Tyler Vitt passed for 296 yards with three TD and no INT and Keenan Brown led the team with 90 receiving yards. Vitt was almost all the offense in the game, as he also led the team with 92 rushing yards. Vitt has got the start in the last two games where he has five TD with two INT.
QB Willie Jones III leads the Bobcats in rushing yards and he has missed the last two games with an injury, but may be available for this game recovering from a shoulder injury. Georgia Southern ranks 58th in the nation in pass defense and 61st in run defense.
The Texas State Bobcats are:
- 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games
The Georgia Southern Eagles are:
- 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall
- 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games
- 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Even giving 17 points on the road Georgia State is the pick in this Sun Belt matchup. While they are only 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games they have covered the spread in all five of their games this season. Their strength on offense is running the ball and they will rack up a ton of rushing yards facing a Texas State run defense that was shredded in their last game. The Eagles will stay undefeated in conference play with a win in this game and they will cover the spread sending Texas State to their 4th straight loss.
Prediction: PICK: Georgia Southern
Full-Game Total Pick
Have to go with the Over in this one, as the Eagles can light up the scoreboard and the Bobcats have struggled to keep opposing teams from doing just that.
Prediction: PICK: Over