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USF vs. Tulsa,
10-12-2018 - Prediction & Preview

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#109 USF
Bulls -7.5
#110 Tulsa
Golden Hurricane 62.5

Friday, October 12, 2018 at 7:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

USF Bulls

5 - 0

2-3
ATS
2-2
O/U
37
PPG
25
OPPG

Tulsa Golden Hurricane

1 - 4

2-3
ATS
0-4
O/U
24
PPG
31
OPPG

We have a tremendous Friday night American Athletic Conference (ACC) matchup between the #23 ranked University of South Florida Bulls (USF) (5-0) travels to Oklahoma to take on the University of Tulsa Hurricane (1-4). The home town crowd at H.A. Chapman Stadium should be rocking for this 7:00 pm Eastern start!!

Blake Barnett is the Man for USF

Junior QB Blake Barnett leads the Bulls offense completing 97 of 149 pass attempts for nine TD’s and four interceptions. Barnett has also been sacked 12 times this season. Barnett has also rushed for an additional 125 yards and four TD’s. Without question as Barnett goes so do the Bulls.

Barnett has a bunch of options including freshman WR Randall St Felix (21-351-1), senior WR Tyre McCants (26-295-2), junior Darnell Solomon (13-288-4) and junior TE Mitchell Wilcox (17-216-1). this is a solid group but there is no star.

The Bulls aren’t a one-dimensional offense and do get it down on the ground. Junior RB Jordan Cronkrite has rushed for 606 yards on 69 carries for five TD’s. 302 of those yards and three of those TD’s were against UMass on the 6th of October. Freshman Johnny Ford is also involved in the ground game rushing for 133 yards on 22 carries and two TD’s.

USF has converted 29 of their 69 third-down attempts this season and has scored on 13 of their 16 Red Zone opportunities.

USF has the #65 ranked defense allowing 423 total yards per game and 25.2 points per game. The Bulls defense allows 210 passing yards and 212.8 rushing yards per game and has 16 sacks, six interceptions and have recovered six fumbles. The Bulls defense also allows opponents to convert 32 percent of their third-down opportunities and teams have scored on ten of their 13 Red Zone opportunities this season.

Sophomore PK Coby Weiss handles the majority of the kicking duties and has converted 18 of 19 extra points and four of his six field goal attempts with 38 yards being his longest.

Tulsa and Their Two Talented QB’s

Tulsa comes into Friday night’s battle as the #99 ranked offense, averaging 190.8 passing yards per game, 206.8 rushing yards and 24.4 points per game.

Sophomore QB Luke Skipper missed last week’s game against Houston but has put up solid numbers passing for 716 yards and four TD’s. Skipper has also thrown for six interceptions and has been sacked a whopping 15 times this season. If Skipper can’t play freshman QB Seth Boomer seems capable and had a nice game against Houston, throwing for 227 yards, one TD, one interception and was sacked four times last Saturday.

Four receivers have at least 100 receiving yards so the ball gets spread around. Leading the way is junior WR Keenan Johnson (18-271-2),  senior WR Justin Hobbs (19-256-1), sophomore WR Keylon Stokes (18-208) and junior WR Jarion Anderson (16-134).

Sophomore RB Corey Taylor II leads the #47 ranked rushing offense with 411 yards on 92 carries and four TD’s. Sophomore RB Shamari Brooks missed last week’s Houston game but has rushed for 375 yards and four TD’s on 92 attempts.

Tulsa has converted 42 of their 95 third downs and has scored on 11 of their 14 red zone opportunities this season.

The Golden Hurricanes defense is ranked #45 in the country, allowing 381 total yards and 31.2 points per game. Opponents pass for 173.4 yards and rush for 207.4 yards per game. This defense has allowed five TD’s, four interceptions, four sacks have recovered five fumbles. Opponents have converted 23 of their 64 third down opportunities and have scored on 16 of its 22 red zone opportunities this season.

Senior PK Nathan Walker handles the kicking duties and has made all 14 of his extra point chances. Walker has also knocked down eight of his 11 field goal opportunities with the longest being 40 yards.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

This game is going to be a shootout as we have a good USF offense going up against a decent Tulsa offense playing at home. The Golden Hurricanes may be ranked #47 in the country in total yards allowed but allowing 31.8 points per game against a talented USF offense isn’t going to cut the mustard.

Cronkite bulldozed UMass last week and should be able to have his way with Tulsa and their 207.4 rushing yards allowed per game. If he can’t get the job done the USF air attack, no matter who the QB is, should be able to pick up the slack.

USF can beat teams on the ground or by their preferred method via the air. USF will absolutely allow their share of points but Tulsa is a bad football team and USF shouldn’t have any trouble covering the -7.5.

Prediction: USF -7.5

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

USF is a points scoring machine. They’ve scored over 30 points three times and over 40 points twice. That’s a bunch of points. Tulsa has gone over 30 points just once this season. So if this game is going to go over that total we’re going to need to rely on USF to do most of the heavy lifting.

The 7.5 point spread tells me Vegas is expecting this game to be relatively close. The numbers tell us this game more than likely will be a shootout. USF likes to score and doesn’t seem to mind when teams score on them. Tulsa has a decent defense but any team allowing an average of 31 points or more against this USF team is going to be in trouble.

It isn’t a reach to think USF could score at least 40 points. It isn’t a reach to believe Tulsa can score at least 24 points against USF. And that right there gives us a pretty good expectation that this game is going to go over the total Friday night.

Prediction: Over 62.5

Phil Naessens

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